SHE vs IPW
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, June 15, 2023 · Owlerton Stadium, Sheffield
Results
- 1Tobiasz Musielak3 2 3 1 09+1
- 2Lewis Kerr0 1 3 15+1
- 3Adam Ellis3 2 0 2 18+1
- 4David Bellego0 1 1 35+1
- 5Jack Holder2 3 2 29
- 6Kyle Howarth2 2 1 3 210+4
- 7Daniel Gilkes3 0 25+1
- 1Jason Doyle2 3 3 3 0 213+1
- 2Danyon Hume1 0 1 02+1
- 3Danny King1 1 2 15+1
- 4Ben Barker2 0 0 02
- 5Emil Sajfutdinow3 3 2 3 314+1
- 6Keynan Rew0 0 00
- 7Dan Thompson1 1 0 13
Heat by heat
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2
- Danyon Hume · IPW1*
- Lewis Kerr · SHE0
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2*
- Dan Thompson · IPW1
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Adam Ellis · SHE3
- Ben Barker · IPW2
- Danny King · IPW1*
- David Bellego · SHE0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Dan Thompson · IPW1
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Adam Ellis · SHE2
- David Bellego · SHE1*
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2
- Lewis Kerr · SHE1*
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2*
- Danny King · IPW1
- Ben Barker · IPW0
- Lewis Kerr · SHE3
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE2*
- Danyon Hume · IPW1
- Dan Thompson · IPW0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW2*
- David Bellego · SHE1
- Adam Ellis · SHE0
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Lewis Kerr · SHE1
- Ben Barker · IPW0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1*
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Kyle Howarth · SHE3
- Adam Ellis · SHE2*
- Danny King · IPW1
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE1*
- Jason Doyle · IPW0
- David Bellego · SHE3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2*
- Dan Thompson · IPW1
- Ben Barker · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2*
- Adam Ellis · SHE1
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 23 → 18 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 10 km/h E
- gusts up to 22 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 53 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | −2 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| SHE | IPW | SHE | IPW | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead SHE
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +2 | 73 % |
| 5 | +2 | 69 % |
| 6 | +2 | 74 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +10 | 98 % |
| 9 | +6 | 89 % |
| 10 | +8 | 95 % |
| 11 | +8 | 95 % |
| 12 | +12 | 100 % |
| 13 | +12 | 100 % |
| 14 | +16 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Howarth | 5 | 7.7 | 10 | +2.3 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 5 | 12.0 | 14 | +2.0 |
| Daniel Gilkes | 3 | 3.0 | 5 | +2.0 |
| Adam Ellis | 5 | 6.5 | 8 | +1.5 |
| Jason Doyle | 6 | 12.3 | 13 | +0.7 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 8.5 | 9 | +0.5 |
| Jack Holder | 4 | 8.7 | 9 | +0.3 |
| Dan Thompson | 4 | 3.3 | 3 | -0.3 |
| David Bellego | 4 | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 |
| Danyon Hume | 4 | 2.5 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Lewis Kerr | 4 | 6.3 | 5 | -1.3 |
| Ben Barker | 4 | 3.5 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Danny King | 4 | 6.6 | 5 | -1.6 |
| Keynan Rew | 3 | 3.7 | 0 | -3.7 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.