BVA vs SHE
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, March 27, 2023 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Dan Bewley0 3 1 04+1
- 2Norick Blödorn1 1 3 27
- 3Jaimon Lidsey3 0 2 2 29
- 4Charles Wright2 2 0 15+1
- 5Brady Kurtz2 3 3 3 011
- 6Tom Brennan3 0 1 0 37
- 7Jake Mulford0 0 00
- 1Jack Holder3 3 2 2 111
- 2Kyle Howarth2 1 1 04+2
- 3Adam Ellis0 1 0 12+1
- 4David Bellego1 2 3 28
- 5Tobiasz Musielak3 2 1 1 310+1
- 6Lewis Kerr2 0 3 3 08
- 7Daniel Gilkes1 1 24+1
Heat by heat
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Dan Bewley · BVA0
- Tom Brennan · BVA3
- Lewis Kerr · SHE2
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE1*
- Jake Mulford · BVA0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Charles Wright · BVA2*
- David Bellego · SHE1
- Adam Ellis · SHE0
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE1
- Jake Mulford · BVA0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Charles Wright · BVA2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Lewis Kerr · SHE0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- David Bellego · SHE2
- Adam Ellis · SHE1*
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1*
- Jake Mulford · BVA0
- Lewis Kerr · SHE3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE1
- Charles Wright · BVA0
- David Bellego · SHE3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2
- Dan Bewley · BVA1*
- Adam Ellis · SHE0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Tom Brennan · BVA1
- Kyle Howarth · SHE0
- Lewis Kerr · SHE3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Adam Ellis · SHE1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE1*
- Dan Bewley · BVA0
- Tom Brennan · BVA3
- David Bellego · SHE2
- Charles Wright · BVA1
- Lewis Kerr · SHE0
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Jack Holder · SHE1
- Brady Kurtz · BVA0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 9 → 6 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 6 km/h SE
- gusts up to 22 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.2 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 55 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 11 | 13 | −2 | +2 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| BVA | SHE | BVA | SHE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -4 | 45 % |
| 2 | -4 | 37 % |
| 3 | 0 | 64 % |
| 4 | -2 | 46 % |
| 5 | -4 | 34 % |
| 6 | -2 | 48 % |
| 7 | -2 | 46 % |
| 8 | -2 | 48 % |
| 9 | -4 | 28 % |
| 10 | -4 | 22 % |
| 11 | -2 | 36 % |
| 12 | -4 | 20 % |
| 13 | -4 | 14 % |
| 14 | -2 | 23 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 3.3 | 7 | +3.7 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 5 | 6.4 | 9 | +2.6 |
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 9.0 | 11 | +2.0 |
| David Bellego | 4 | 6.2 | 8 | +1.8 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 9.3 | 11 | +1.7 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 9.3 | 10 | +0.7 |
| Tom Brennan | 5 | 6.3 | 7 | +0.7 |
| Daniel Gilkes | 3 | 3.5 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Lewis Kerr | 5 | 7.5 | 8 | +0.5 |
| Charles Wright | 4 | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 |
| Kyle Howarth | 4 | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 |
| Jake Mulford | 3 | 2.8 | 0 | -2.8 |
| Adam Ellis | 4 | 6.4 | 2 | -4.4 |
| Dan Bewley | 4 | 8.8 | 4 | -4.8 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.