LEI vs SHE
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, May 22, 2023 · Hydroscand Arena, Leicester
Results
- 1Max Fricke3 3 2 3 112+1
- 2Justin Sedgmen2 0 2 37+1
- 3Richard Lawson3 2 2 3 fd10+1
- 4Chris Harris1 1 3 27+1
- 5Nick Morris3 2 2 29+1
- 6Jake Allen3 1 0 15+2
- 7Dan Thompson1 1 r 13
- 1Jack Holder1 3 0 3 1 311
- 2Kyle Howarth0 0 1 12
- 3David Bellego0 0 00
- 4Tobiasz Musielak2 3 1 3 211+1
- 5Adam Ellis2 1 1 04+1
- 6Lewis Kerr2 2 0 2 06
- 7Daniel Gilkes0 0 33
Heat by heat
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI2*
- Jack Holder · SHE1
- Kyle Howarth · SHE0
- Jake Allen · LEI3
- Lewis Kerr · SHE2
- Dan Thompson · LEI1
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE0
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2
- Chris Harris · LEI1
- David Bellego · SHE0
- Nick Morris · LEI3
- Adam Ellis · SHE2
- Dan Thompson · LEI1
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Chris Harris · LEI1*
- Kyle Howarth · SHE0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Lewis Kerr · SHE2
- Adam Ellis · SHE1*
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI0
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Nick Morris · LEI2
- Jake Allen · LEI1*
- David Bellego · SHE0
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE3
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Dan Thompson · LEIr
- Chris Harris · LEI3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2*
- Adam Ellis · SHE1
- Lewis Kerr · SHE0
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI3
- Max Fricke · LEI2*
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE1
- Jack Holder · SHE0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Nick Morris · LEI2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Jake Allen · LEI0
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Lewis Kerr · SHE2
- Dan Thompson · LEI1
- David Bellego · SHE0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Nick Morris · LEI2*
- Jack Holder · SHE1
- Adam Ellis · SHE0
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Chris Harris · LEI2
- Jake Allen · LEI1*
- Lewis Kerr · SHE0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2*
- Max Fricke · LEI1
- Richard Lawson · LEIfd
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Drizzle → Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 18 → 11 °C
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Wind
- 12 km/h NE
- gusts up to 24 km/h
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.2 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 53 %
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 17 | 7 | +10 | −10 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| LEI | SHE | LEI | SHE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LEI
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +6 | 89 % |
| 3 | +8 | 94 % |
| 4 | +10 | 98 % |
| 5 | +10 | 96 % |
| 6 | +10 | 97 % |
| 7 | +10 | 97 % |
| 8 | +8 | 94 % |
| 9 | +12 | 99 % |
| 10 | +16 | 100 % |
| 11 | +14 | 100 % |
| 12 | +16 | 100 % |
| 13 | +20 | 100 % |
| 14 | +20 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Sedgmen | 4 | 4.2 | 7 | +2.8 |
| Nick Morris | 4 | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 |
| Jake Allen | 4 | 2.7 | 5 | +2.3 |
| Richard Lawson | 5 | 8.1 | 10 | +1.9 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 9.4 | 11 | +1.6 |
| Max Fricke | 5 | 10.5 | 12 | +1.5 |
| Chris Harris | 4 | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 |
| Dan Thompson | 4 | 3.2 | 3 | -0.2 |
| Daniel Gilkes | 3 | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Jack Holder | 6 | 12.8 | 11 | -1.8 |
| Adam Ellis | 4 | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 |
| Lewis Kerr | 5 | 8.3 | 6 | -2.3 |
| Kyle Howarth | 4 | 5.4 | 2 | -3.4 |
| David Bellego | 3 | 3.9 | 0 | -3.9 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.