BVA vs LEI
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, May 1, 2023 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Dan Bewley3 3 1 18+1
- 2Norick Blödorn1 2 2 27+1
- 3Tom Brennan3 2 2 2 09+1
- 4Charles Wright1 1 3 16+1
- 5Brady Kurtz3 3 2 3 314
- 6Jaimon Lidsey3 0 1 37+1
- 7Jake MulfordR 0 1 01+1
- 1Max Fricke0 3 1 3 2 211
- 2Justin Sedgmen2 0 3 05
- 3Richard Lawson2 2 0 15
- 4Chris Harris0 1 3 2 17+2
- 5Nick Morris1 1 N2 02+1
- 6Jake Allen2 R 3 05
- 7Dan Thompson1 2 0 R3+1
Heat by heat
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Max Fricke · LEI0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Jake Allen · LEI2
- Dan Thompson · LEI1*
- Jake Mulford · BVAR
- Tom Brennan · BVA3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Charles Wright · BVA1
- Chris Harris · LEI0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Dan Thompson · LEI2
- Nick Morris · LEI1*
- Jake Mulford · BVA0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2
- Charles Wright · BVA1*
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2*
- Nick Morris · LEI1
- Jake Allen · LEIR
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Chris Harris · LEI1*
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA0
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2
- Jake Mulford · BVA1*
- Dan Thompson · LEI0
- Charles Wright · BVA3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2*
- Max Fricke · LEI1
- Dan Thompson · LEIR
- Chris Harris · LEI3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2
- Dan Bewley · BVA1*
- Richard Lawson · LEI0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA1*
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI0
- Jake Allen · LEI3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2
- Richard Lawson · LEI1
- Jake Mulford · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Dan Bewley · BVA1
- Nick Morris · LEI0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Chris Harris · LEI2
- Charles Wright · BVA1
- Jake Allen · LEI0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Chris Harris · LEI1*
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 14 → 13 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 18 km/h W
- gusts up to 37 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0.2 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 3.4 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 75 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| BVA | LEI | BVA | LEI | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +4 | 83 % |
| 6 | +8 | 95 % |
| 7 | +8 | 95 % |
| 8 | +8 | 94 % |
| 9 | +12 | 99 % |
| 10 | +12 | 100 % |
| 11 | +12 | 100 % |
| 12 | +10 | 98 % |
| 13 | +12 | 100 % |
| 14 | +14 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 9.0 | 14 | +5.0 |
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 4.1 | 7 | +2.9 |
| Tom Brennan | 5 | 6.3 | 9 | +2.7 |
| Jake Allen | 4 | 3.1 | 5 | +1.9 |
| Max Fricke | 6 | 10.6 | 11 | +0.4 |
| Justin Sedgmen | 4 | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 4 | 7.4 | 7 | -0.4 |
| Dan Thompson | 4 | 4.0 | 3 | -1.0 |
| Charles Wright | 4 | 7.1 | 6 | -1.1 |
| Chris Harris | 5 | 8.2 | 7 | -1.2 |
| Dan Bewley | 4 | 9.4 | 8 | -1.4 |
| Jake Mulford | 4 | 3.1 | 1 | -2.1 |
| Richard Lawson | 4 | 7.3 | 5 | -2.3 |
| Nick Morris | 3 | 4.9 | 2 | -2.9 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.