LEI vs BVA
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, April 20, 2023 · Hydroscand Arena, Leicester
Results
- 1Max FrickeN2 0 3 3 06
- 2Justin Sedgmen1 3 2 06
- 3Richard LawsonFD 2 2 37+1
- 4Chris Harris2 1 3 17+1
- 5Nick Morris2 3 3 1 211
- 6Jake Allen0 2 1 0 03+1
- 7Dan Thompson3 1 1 05+2
- 1Dan Bewley3 3 2 0 311
- 2Norick Blödorn2 0 3 16+2
- 3Tom Brennan1 0 2 14+1
- 4Charles Wright3 2 1 28+2
- 5Ryan Douglas3 1 1 2 3 111+1
- 6Jaimon Lidsey0 2 0 24
- 7Jake Mulford1 0 01
Heat by heat
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2*
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI1
- Jake Allen · LEI0
- Dan Thompson · LEI3
- Jake Allen · LEI2*
- Jake Mulford · BVA1
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA0
- Charles Wright · BVA3
- Chris Harris · LEI2
- Tom Brennan · BVA1
- Richard Lawson · LEIFD
- Ryan Douglas · BVA3
- Nick Morris · LEI2
- Dan Thompson · LEI1*
- Jake Mulford · BVA0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Chris Harris · LEI1*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Ryan Douglas · BVA1*
- Max Fricke · LEI0
- Nick Morris · LEI3
- Charles Wright · BVA2
- Jake Allen · LEI1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI2
- Dan Thompson · LEI1*
- Jake Mulford · BVA0
- Chris Harris · LEI3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2*
- Ryan Douglas · BVA1
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2
- Charles Wright · BVA1*
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI0
- Nick Morris · LEI3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1*
- Jake Allen · LEI0
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Tom Brennan · BVA1*
- Dan Thompson · LEI0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Ryan Douglas · BVA2
- Nick Morris · LEI1
- Dan Bewley · BVA0
- Ryan Douglas · BVA3
- Charles Wright · BVA2*
- Chris Harris · LEI1
- Jake Allen · LEI0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Nick Morris · LEI2
- Ryan Douglas · BVA1
- Max Fricke · LEI0
- Dan Bewley · BVA4
- Ryan Douglas · BVA3
- Nick Morris · LEI2
- Richard Lawson · LEI0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 11 → 8 °C
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Wind
- 24 km/h NE
- gusts up to 43 km/h
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 66 %
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 11 | 13 | −2 | +2 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–16 | 5 | 16 | −11 | +11 | |
| LEI | BVA | LEI | BVA | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LEI
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -4 | 45 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | -2 | 47 % |
| 4 | -2 | 46 % |
| 5 | -2 | 47 % |
| 6 | -2 | 48 % |
| 7 | 0 | 60 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +4 | 88 % |
| 12 | +4 | 86 % |
| 13 | +6 | 96 % |
| 14 | +2 | 77 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Douglas | 7 | 10.4 | 13 | +2.6 |
| Nick Morris | 6 | 9.5 | 12 | +2.5 |
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 4.6 | 6 | +1.4 |
| Charles Wright | 4 | 6.7 | 8 | +1.3 |
| Dan Thompson | 4 | 3.8 | 5 | +1.2 |
| Dan Bewley | 6 | 12.9 | 14 | +1.1 |
| Justin Sedgmen | 4 | 6.2 | 6 | -0.2 |
| Chris Harris | 4 | 7.3 | 7 | -0.3 |
| Jake Allen | 5 | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Max Fricke | 4 | 6.9 | 6 | -0.9 |
| Richard Lawson | 5 | 8.3 | 7 | -1.3 |
| Tom Brennan | 4 | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 |
| Jake Mulford | 3 | 2.9 | 1 | -1.9 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 4 | 7.5 | 4 | -3.5 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.