LEI vs IPW
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, April 17, 2023 · Hydroscand Arena, Leicester
Results
- 1Max Fricke3 0 1 1 05+1
- 2Justin Sedgmen1 2 2 27
- 3Richard Lawson3 2 1 3 110+1
- 4Chris Harris2 1 2 38+2
- 5Nick Morris2 2 1 05+1
- 6Jake Allen0 1 2 14+1
- 7Dan Thompson1 0 1 24+2
- 1Jason Doyle2 3 3 2 212+2
- 3Danny King0 3 3 3 211
- 4Keynan Rew1 0 0 0 1 35
- 5Emil Sajfutdinow3 3 3 312
- 6Danyon Hume3 1 1 0 0 05
- 7Joe ThompsonR 2 0 02+1
Heat by heat
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI1
- Joe Thompson · IPWR
- Danyon Hume · IPW3
- Joe Thompson · IPW2*
- Dan Thompson · LEI1
- Jake Allen · LEI0
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Chris Harris · LEI2*
- Keynan Rew · IPW1
- Danny King · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Nick Morris · LEI2
- Danyon Hume · IPW1
- Dan Thompson · LEI0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Chris Harris · LEI1*
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI2
- Danyon Hume · IPW1
- Max Fricke · LEI0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Nick Morris · LEI2
- Jake Allen · LEI1*
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI2
- Dan Thompson · LEI1*
- Joe Thompson · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Chris Harris · LEI2
- Richard Lawson · LEI1*
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI2
- Max Fricke · LEI1*
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Jake Allen · LEI2
- Nick Morris · LEI1*
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Jake Allen · LEI1
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2*
- Max Fricke · LEI1
- Nick Morris · LEI0
- Chris Harris · LEI3
- Dan Thompson · LEI2*
- Keynan Rew · IPW1
- Joe Thompson · IPW0
- Keynan Rew · IPW3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2*
- Richard Lawson · LEI1
- Max Fricke · LEI0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Clear
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 13 → 7 °C
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Wind
- 15 km/h E
- gusts up to 28 km/h
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.2 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 77 %
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| LEI | IPW | LEI | IPW | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LEI
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | -2 | 54 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | -2 | 48 % |
| 7 | -2 | 46 % |
| 8 | -2 | 48 % |
| 9 | -2 | 44 % |
| 10 | -2 | 36 % |
| 11 | -2 | 36 % |
| 12 | 0 | 57 % |
| 13 | -4 | 14 % |
| 14 | 0 | 56 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 4 | 9.9 | 12 | +2.1 |
| Richard Lawson | 5 | 8.1 | 10 | +1.9 |
| Justin Sedgmen | 4 | 5.4 | 7 | +1.6 |
| Danny King | 5 | 9.8 | 11 | +1.2 |
| Chris Harris | 4 | 7.6 | 8 | +0.4 |
| Jake Allen | 4 | 3.6 | 4 | +0.4 |
| Danyon Hume | 6 | 4.7 | 5 | +0.3 |
| Jason Doyle | 5 | 11.9 | 12 | +0.1 |
| Dan Thompson | 4 | 4.3 | 4 | -0.3 |
| Keynan Rew | 6 | 6.1 | 5 | -1.1 |
| Joe Thompson | 4 | 3.4 | 2 | -1.4 |
| Nick Morris | 4 | 6.4 | 5 | -1.4 |
| Max Fricke | 5 | 8.8 | 5 | -3.8 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.