BVA vs IPW
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, September 25, 2023 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Brady Kurtz1 3 3 3 010+1
- 2Tom Brennan2 0 3 1 17
- 3Jaimon LidseyR 2 3 3 311+1
- 5Dan Bewley2 3 2 2 110+1
- 6Norick Blödorn2 2 3 1 0 0 210+1
- 7Connor Bailey1 0 23+2
- 1Emil Sajfutdinow3 1 3 1 311
- 2Erik Riss0 0 R0
- 3Danny King3 2 2 18+1
- 4Danyon Hume1 0 0 12
- 5Jason Doyle3 2 2 0 29+1
- 6Keynan Rew3 1 0 1 2 07+1
- 7Jack Smith0 1 12
Heat by heat
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1*
- Erik Riss · IPW0
- Keynan Rew · IPW3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2
- Connor Bailey · BVA1*
- Jack Smith · IPW0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2
- Danyon Hume · IPW1
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVAR
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Jack Smith · IPW1
- Connor Bailey · BVA0
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2*
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW1
- Erik Riss · IPW0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2
- Keynan Rew · IPW1*
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Tom Brennan · BVA3
- Connor Bailey · BVA2*
- Jack Smith · IPW1
- Erik Riss · IPWR
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2
- Tom Brennan · BVA1
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Tom Brennan · BVA1
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Keynan Rew · IPW1
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2
- Danny King · IPW1*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2*
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW1
- Jason Doyle · IPW0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2*
- Danyon Hume · IPW1
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2*
- Dan Bewley · BVA1
- Brady Kurtz · BVA0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 16 → 14 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 7 km/h S
- gusts up to 24 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 1.8 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 75 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 10 | 14 | −4 | +4 | |
| 5–7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 8–10 | 13 | 5 | +8 | −8 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| BVA | IPW | BVA | IPW | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | -2 | 47 % |
| 4 | -4 | 38 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +8 | 94 % |
| 10 | +10 | 96 % |
| 11 | +8 | 95 % |
| 12 | +8 | 98 % |
| 13 | +12 | 100 % |
| 14 | +16 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norick Blödorn | 7 | 7.2 | 10 | +2.8 |
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 7.8 | 10 | +2.2 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 5 | 9.8 | 11 | +1.2 |
| Tom Brennan | 5 | 6.5 | 7 | +0.5 |
| Dan Bewley | 5 | 9.8 | 10 | +0.2 |
| Connor Bailey | 3 | 2.9 | 3 | +0.1 |
| Danny King | 4 | 8.2 | 8 | -0.2 |
| Keynan Rew | 6 | 7.2 | 7 | -0.2 |
| Jack Smith | 3 | 2.4 | 2 | -0.4 |
| Danyon Hume | 4 | 2.8 | 2 | -0.8 |
| Jason Doyle | 5 | 9.9 | 9 | -0.9 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 5 | 12.3 | 11 | -1.3 |
| Erik Riss | 3 | 3.2 | 0 | -3.2 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.