SHE vs BVA
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, March 23, 2023 · Owlerton Stadium, Sheffield
Results
- 1Jack Holder2 3 3 1 R9+1
- 2David Bellego3 1 2 17
- 3Adam Ellis1 1 2 15+2
- 4Kyle Howarth2 0 3 16
- 5Tobiasz Musielak2 3 2 3 212+1
- 6Lewis Kerr2 0 3 0 38
- 7Daniel Gilkes0 1 0 N1+1
- 1Dan Bewley0 3 1 2 17
- 2Norick Blödorn1 2 1 04+1
- 3Jaimon Lidsey0 2 0 24+1
- 4Charles Wright3 1 2 28+1
- 5Brady Kurtz3 2 1 3 0 312
- 6Tom Brennan3 0 03
- 7Jake Mulford1 0 3 04
Heat by heat
- David Bellego · SHE3
- Jack Holder · SHE2*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Dan Bewley · BVA0
- Tom Brennan · BVA3
- Lewis Kerr · SHE2
- Jake Mulford · BVA1
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE0
- Charles Wright · BVA3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2
- Adam Ellis · SHE1*
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE1*
- Jake Mulford · BVA0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2*
- Adam Ellis · SHE1
- Kyle Howarth · SHE0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- David Bellego · SHE1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Charles Wright · BVA1*
- Lewis Kerr · SHE0
- Jake Mulford · BVA3
- David Bellego · SHE2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE0
- Kyle Howarth · SHE3
- Adam Ellis · SHE2*
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Charles Wright · BVA2
- David Bellego · SHE1
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA0
- Lewis Kerr · SHE3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2*
- Dan Bewley · BVA1
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2*
- Adam Ellis · SHE1
- Lewis Kerr · SHE0
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Jack Holder · SHE1
- Brady Kurtz · BVA0
- Lewis Kerr · SHE3
- Charles Wright · BVA2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Jake Mulford · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2
- Dan Bewley · BVA1
- Jack Holder · SHER
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Showers
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 10 → 8 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 15 km/h S
- gusts up to 30 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0.6 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 4.4 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 77 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | −2 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| SHE | BVA | SHE | BVA | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead SHE
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +2 | 73 % |
| 5 | -2 | 47 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | 0 | 60 % |
| 8 | -2 | 48 % |
| 9 | +2 | 73 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +8 | 95 % |
| 12 | +4 | 86 % |
| 13 | +6 | 96 % |
| 14 | +8 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 8.5 | 12 | +3.5 |
| Charles Wright | 4 | 5.8 | 8 | +2.2 |
| Brady Kurtz | 6 | 10.4 | 12 | +1.6 |
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 3.1 | 4 | +0.9 |
| David Bellego | 4 | 6.2 | 7 | +0.8 |
| Kyle Howarth | 4 | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 |
| Jake Mulford | 4 | 3.3 | 4 | +0.7 |
| Lewis Kerr | 5 | 7.5 | 8 | +0.5 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 8.7 | 9 | +0.3 |
| Tom Brennan | 3 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 4 | 5.6 | 4 | -1.6 |
| Adam Ellis | 4 | 6.7 | 5 | -1.7 |
| Daniel Gilkes | 3 | 3.7 | 1 | -2.7 |
| Dan Bewley | 5 | 11.4 | 7 | -4.4 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.