BVA vs SHE
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, October 10, 2022 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Brady Kurtz1 2 3 2 210+3
- 2Tom Brennan2 0 3 27+1
- 3Matej Zagar3 3 2 210
- 4Charles Wright1 2 FD3+1
- 5Robert Lambert3 3 3 3 315
- 6Norick Blödorn3 0 1 1 0 0 16
- 7Jye Etheridge0 FN0
- 1Jack Holder0 XD 2 02
- 2Lewis Kerr3 1 2 17+1
- 3Adam Ellis2 2 0 3 18
- 4Kyle Howarth0 0 1 34
- 5Tobiasz Musielak1 3 3 1 FD8+1
- 6Justin Sedgmen2 1 1 1 27+1
- 7Connor Mountain1 2 03+1
Heat by heat
- Lewis Kerr · SHE3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1*
- Jack Holder · SHE0
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE2
- Connor Mountain · SHE1*
- Jye Etheridge · BVA0
- Matej Zagar · BVA3
- Adam Ellis · SHE2
- Charles Wright · BVA1
- Kyle Howarth · SHE0
- Robert Lambert · BVA3
- Connor Mountain · SHE2
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE1*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Matej Zagar · BVA3
- Charles Wright · BVA2*
- Lewis Kerr · SHE1
- Jack Holder · SHEXD
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Robert Lambert · BVA3
- Adam Ellis · SHE2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Kyle Howarth · SHE0
- Tom Brennan · BVA3
- Lewis Kerr · SHE2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Connor Mountain · SHE0
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Matej Zagar · BVA2
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE1
- Charles Wright · BVAFD
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2*
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Adam Ellis · SHE0
- Robert Lambert · BVA3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Lewis Kerr · SHE1*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Adam Ellis · SHE3
- Matej Zagar · BVA2
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE1
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Robert Lambert · BVA3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2*
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE1
- Jack Holder · SHE0
- Kyle Howarth · SHE3
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE2*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Charles Wright · BVA
- Robert Lambert · BVA3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2*
- Adam Ellis · SHE1
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHEFD
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 11 → 9 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 7 km/h SW
- gusts up to 19 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 10.8 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 81 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | −2 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| BVA | SHE | BVA | SHE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +2 | 73 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +4 | 82 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +8 | 94 % |
| 9 | +6 | 89 % |
| 10 | +10 | 96 % |
| 11 | +10 | 97 % |
| 12 | +8 | 98 % |
| 13 | +12 | 100 % |
| 14 | +8 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Lambert | 5 | 12.0 | 15 | +3.0 |
| Lewis Kerr | 4 | 4.4 | 7 | +2.6 |
| Matej Zagar | 4 | 8.0 | 10 | +2.0 |
| Tom Brennan | 4 | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 |
| Justin Sedgmen | 5 | 5.2 | 7 | +1.8 |
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 8.9 | 10 | +1.1 |
| Adam Ellis | 5 | 7.8 | 8 | +0.2 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 7.8 | 8 | +0.2 |
| Connor Mountain | 3 | 3.2 | 3 | -0.2 |
| Kyle Howarth | 4 | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 |
| Jye Etheridge | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Norick Blödorn | 7 | 7.5 | 6 | -1.5 |
| Charles Wright | 4 | 5.9 | 3 | -2.9 |
| Jack Holder | 4 | 7.5 | 2 | -5.5 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.