BVA vs IPW
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, October 3, 2022 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Brady Kurtz3 2 3 08
- 2Tom Brennan0 0 3 14
- 3Matej Zagar3 2 2 3 212+2
- 4Charles Wright1 0 3 37
- 5Robert Lambert3 3 3 3 315
- 6Norick Blödorn3 0 1 15
- 7Jye Etheridge1 2 1 R4+1
- 1Jason Doyle1 3 2 2 19+1
- 2Aaron Summers2 1 2 05
- 3Danny King0 2 2 1 05+1
- 4Rohan Tungate2 1 0 25+1
- 5Troy BatchelorR 3 1 15+1
- 6Paul Starke2 1 0 25
- 7Anders Rowe0 1 0 01
Heat by heat
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Aaron Summers · IPW2
- Jason Doyle · IPW1*
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Paul Starke · IPW2
- Jye Etheridge · BVA1
- Anders Rowe · IPW0
- Matej Zagar · BVA3
- Rohan Tungate · IPW2
- Charles Wright · BVA1
- Danny King · IPW0
- Robert Lambert · BVA3
- Jye Etheridge · BVA2*
- Anders Rowe · IPW1
- Troy Batchelor · IPWR
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Matej Zagar · BVA2
- Aaron Summers · IPW1
- Charles Wright · BVA0
- Troy Batchelor · IPW3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Paul Starke · IPW1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Robert Lambert · BVA3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Rohan Tungate · IPW1*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Tom Brennan · BVA3
- Aaron Summers · IPW2
- Jye Etheridge · BVA1
- Anders Rowe · IPW0
- Charles Wright · BVA3
- Matej Zagar · BVA2*
- Troy Batchelor · IPW1
- Paul Starke · IPW0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Tom Brennan · BVA1
- Rohan Tungate · IPW0
- Robert Lambert · BVA3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Aaron Summers · IPW0
- Matej Zagar · BVA3
- Paul Starke · IPW2
- Danny King · IPW1*
- Jye Etheridge · BVAR
- Robert Lambert · BVA3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2
- Troy Batchelor · IPW1*
- Brady Kurtz · BVA0
- Charles Wright · BVA3
- Rohan Tungate · IPW2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Anders Rowe · IPW0
- Robert Lambert · BVA3
- Matej Zagar · BVA2*
- Jason Doyle · IPW1
- Danny King · IPW0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 14 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 7 km/h S
- gusts up to 26 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 77 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 16 | 8 | +8 | −8 | |
| 5–7 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 8–10 | 13 | 5 | +8 | −8 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 9 | 3 | +6 | −6 | |
| BVA | IPW | BVA | IPW | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +8 | 93 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +4 | 82 % |
| 7 | +4 | 82 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +10 | 97 % |
| 10 | +12 | 100 % |
| 11 | +14 | 100 % |
| 12 | +14 | 100 % |
| 13 | +14 | 100 % |
| 14 | +16 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Lambert | 5 | 11.4 | 15 | +3.6 |
| Matej Zagar | 5 | 9.3 | 12 | +2.7 |
| Paul Starke | 4 | 3.1 | 5 | +1.9 |
| Aaron Summers | 4 | 3.4 | 5 | +1.6 |
| Charles Wright | 4 | 6.2 | 7 | +0.8 |
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 4.6 | 5 | +0.4 |
| Brady Kurtz | 4 | 7.6 | 8 | +0.4 |
| Troy Batchelor | 4 | 4.8 | 5 | +0.2 |
| Rohan Tungate | 4 | 6.4 | 5 | -1.4 |
| Jye Etheridge | 4 | 5.8 | 4 | -1.8 |
| Tom Brennan | 4 | 5.8 | 4 | -1.8 |
| Danny King | 5 | 7.1 | 5 | -2.1 |
| Jason Doyle | 5 | 11.1 | 9 | -2.1 |
| Anders Rowe | 4 | 3.4 | 1 | -2.4 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.