BVA vs SHE
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, September 5, 2022 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Max Fricke2 2 2 17+1
- 2Tom Brennan0 1 3 37+1
- 3Matej Zagar2 1 2 3 08+1
- 4Charles Wright1 2 0 36+1
- 5Brady Kurtz3 3 1 3 313
- 6Jye Etheridge1 2 03+1
- 7Norick Blödorn3 2 2 1 210+3
- 1Nicolai Klindt3 3 1 3 0 212
- 2Lewis Kerr1 0 1 24+1
- 3Adam Ellis0 FD 0 22
- 4Kyle Howarth3 1 1 FD5
- 5Jack Holder1 3 3 2 110+1
- 6Justin Sedgmen2 0 02
- 7Connor Mountain0 0 0 11
Heat by heat
- Nicolai Klindt · SHE3
- Max Fricke · BVA2
- Lewis Kerr · SHE1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE2
- Jye Etheridge · BVA1
- Connor Mountain · SHE0
- Kyle Howarth · SHE3
- Matej Zagar · BVA2
- Charles Wright · BVA1*
- Adam Ellis · SHE0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2*
- Jack Holder · SHE1
- Connor Mountain · SHE0
- Nicolai Klindt · SHE3
- Charles Wright · BVA2
- Matej Zagar · BVA1*
- Lewis Kerr · SHE0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Max Fricke · BVA2
- Tom Brennan · BVA1*
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Jye Etheridge · BVA2*
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Adam Ellis · SHEFD
- Tom Brennan · BVA3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2*
- Lewis Kerr · SHE1
- Connor Mountain · SHE0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Matej Zagar · BVA2
- Nicolai Klindt · SHE1
- Charles Wright · BVA0
- Tom Brennan · BVA3
- Max Fricke · BVA2*
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Adam Ellis · SHE0
- Nicolai Klindt · SHE3
- Lewis Kerr · SHE2*
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1
- Jye Etheridge · BVA0
- Matej Zagar · BVA3
- Adam Ellis · SHE2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Max Fricke · BVA1
- Nicolai Klindt · SHE0
- Charles Wright · BVA3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2*
- Connor Mountain · SHE1
- Kyle Howarth · SHEFD
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Nicolai Klindt · SHE2
- Jack Holder · SHE1*
- Matej Zagar · BVA0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 20 → 19 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 7 km/h SE
- gusts up to 33 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0.2 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 7.9 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 72 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| BVA | SHE | BVA | SHE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | 0 | 64 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +4 | 83 % |
| 6 | +4 | 82 % |
| 7 | +8 | 95 % |
| 8 | +12 | 98 % |
| 9 | +10 | 97 % |
| 10 | +14 | 99 % |
| 11 | +10 | 97 % |
| 12 | +12 | 100 % |
| 13 | +14 | 100 % |
| 14 | +18 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolai Klindt | 6 | 7.9 | 12 | +4.1 |
| Norick Blödorn | 5 | 6.9 | 10 | +3.1 |
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 10.0 | 13 | +3.0 |
| Tom Brennan | 4 | 5.2 | 7 | +1.8 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 9.2 | 10 | +0.8 |
| Lewis Kerr | 4 | 4.0 | 4 | -0.0 |
| Kyle Howarth | 4 | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 |
| Charles Wright | 4 | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 |
| Justin Sedgmen | 3 | 2.5 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Matej Zagar | 5 | 8.8 | 8 | -0.8 |
| Jye Etheridge | 3 | 3.8 | 3 | -0.8 |
| Max Fricke | 4 | 9.6 | 7 | -2.6 |
| Connor Mountain | 4 | 4.0 | 1 | -3.0 |
| Adam Ellis | 4 | 6.7 | 2 | -4.7 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.