IPW vs SHE
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, July 21, 2022 · Foxhall Stadium, Ipswich
Results
- 1Jason Doyle3 3 3 3 315
- 3Danny King3 3 3 09
- 4Tom Brennan1 1 2 1 38
- 5Troy Batchelor2 E 2 2 2 08+3
- 6Erik Riss0 3 R 2 3 2 212+1
- 7Danyon Hume1 0 0 12+1
- 1Jack Holder2 2 R 1 16+1
- 2Kyle Howarth1 1 R 3 16+1
- 3Adam Ellis2 2 3 1 1 1 212
- 4Craig CookR 1 2 R3
- 6Justin Sedgmen2 3 1 0 3 09+1
- 7Connor Mountain0 0 00
Heat by heat
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1*
- Erik Riss · IPW0
- Erik Riss · IPW3
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE2
- Danyon Hume · IPW1
- Connor Mountain · SHE0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Adam Ellis · SHE2
- Tom Brennan · IPW1
- Craig Cook · SHER
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE3
- Troy Batchelor · IPW2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Tom Brennan · IPW1
- Kyle Howarth · SHER
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Adam Ellis · SHE2
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE1*
- Erik Riss · IPWR
- Adam Ellis · SHE3
- Erik Riss · IPW2
- Craig Cook · SHE1
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Kyle Howarth · SHE3
- Tom Brennan · IPW2
- Danyon Hume · IPW1*
- Connor Mountain · SHE0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Craig Cook · SHE2
- Tom Brennan · IPW1
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Troy Batchelor · IPW2*
- Adam Ellis · SHE1
- Craig Cook · SHER
- Erik Riss · IPW3
- Troy Batchelor · IPW2*
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Jack Holder · SHER
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE3
- Erik Riss · IPW2
- Adam Ellis · SHE1
- Danny King · IPW0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Troy Batchelor · IPW2*
- Jack Holder · SHE1
- Connor Mountain · SHE0
- Tom Brennan · IPW3
- Erik Riss · IPW2*
- Adam Ellis · SHE1
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Adam Ellis · SHE2
- Jack Holder · SHE1*
- Troy Batchelor · IPW0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 20 → 17 °C
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Wind
- 14 km/h NE
- gusts up to 26 km/h
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 1.4 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 61 %
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | −2 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 11–13 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| IPW | SHE | IPW | SHE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead IPW
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +2 | 73 % |
| 5 | +4 | 83 % |
| 6 | +4 | 82 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | +2 | 71 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +8 | 95 % |
| 11 | +12 | 100 % |
| 12 | +10 | 98 % |
| 13 | +14 | 100 % |
| 14 | +18 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Sedgmen | 6 | 6.2 | 9 | +2.8 |
| Jason Doyle | 5 | 12.2 | 15 | +2.8 |
| Erik Riss | 7 | 9.7 | 12 | +2.3 |
| Danny King | 4 | 7.1 | 9 | +1.9 |
| Tom Brennan | 5 | 6.5 | 8 | +1.5 |
| Troy Batchelor | 5 | 6.8 | 8 | +1.2 |
| Adam Ellis | 7 | 12.3 | 12 | -0.3 |
| Kyle Howarth | 5 | 7.8 | 6 | -1.8 |
| Danyon Hume | 4 | 3.9 | 2 | -1.9 |
| Craig Cook | 4 | 5.4 | 3 | -2.4 |
| Connor Mountain | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -3.0 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 9.1 | 6 | -3.1 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.