IPW vs BVA
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, July 14, 2022 · Foxhall Stadium, Ipswich
Results
- 1Jason Doyle3 2 3 311
- 3Danny King3 1 2 3 09
- 4Ben Barker2 1 0 1 04+2
- 5Troy Batchelor1 2 2 3 2 313+3
- 6Erik Riss3 2 1 0 06+1
- 7Danyon Hume2 1 3 0 17+2
- 1Matej Zagar1 2 2 05+1
- 3Brady Kurtz2 3 2 2 110+1
- 4Tom Brennan0 0 1 1 35+1
- 5Max Fricke3 3 3 3 1 1 216+1
- 6Zach Cook0 1 0 01
- 7Nick Blodorn0 0 0 1 23+2
Heat by heat
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Ben Barker · IPW2*
- Matej Zagar · BVA1
- Zach Cook · BVA0
- Erik Riss · IPW3
- Danyon Hume · IPW2*
- Zach Cook · BVA1
- Nick Blodorn · BVA0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Ben Barker · IPW1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Max Fricke · BVA3
- Erik Riss · IPW2
- Troy Batchelor · IPW1*
- Nick Blodorn · BVA0
- Max Fricke · BVA3
- Matej Zagar · BVA2*
- Danny King · IPW1
- Ben Barker · IPW0
- Max Fricke · BVA3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2
- Danyon Hume · IPW1*
- Zach Cook · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Troy Batchelor · IPW2
- Erik Riss · IPW1*
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Danyon Hume · IPW3
- Troy Batchelor · IPW2*
- Tom Brennan · BVA1
- Nick Blodorn · BVA0
- Max Fricke · BVA3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Ben Barker · IPW1*
- Zach Cook · BVA0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Tom Brennan · BVA1*
- Erik Riss · IPW0
- Troy Batchelor · IPW3
- Matej Zagar · BVA2
- Max Fricke · BVA1*
- Erik Riss · IPW0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Nick Blodorn · BVA1*
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Troy Batchelor · IPW2*
- Max Fricke · BVA1
- Matej Zagar · BVA0
- Tom Brennan · BVA3
- Nick Blodorn · BVA2*
- Danyon Hume · IPW1
- Ben Barker · IPW0
- Troy Batchelor · IPW3
- Max Fricke · BVA2
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1*
- Danny King · IPW0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 20 → 16 °C
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Wind
- 12 km/h N
- gusts up to 24 km/h
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 58 %
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 17 | 7 | +10 | −10 | |
| 5–7 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| IPW | BVA | IPW | BVA | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead IPW
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +8 | 96 % |
| 3 | +10 | 98 % |
| 4 | +10 | 98 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +10 | 98 % |
| 9 | +10 | 97 % |
| 10 | +10 | 96 % |
| 11 | +10 | 97 % |
| 12 | +10 | 98 % |
| 13 | +14 | 100 % |
| 14 | +10 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Batchelor | 6 | 7.0 | 13 | +6.0 |
| Danyon Hume | 5 | 4.2 | 7 | +2.8 |
| Max Fricke | 7 | 14.3 | 16 | +1.7 |
| Jason Doyle | 4 | 9.5 | 11 | +1.5 |
| Danny King | 5 | 7.7 | 9 | +1.3 |
| Ben Barker | 5 | 4.8 | 4 | -0.8 |
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 10.9 | 10 | -0.9 |
| Erik Riss | 5 | 6.9 | 6 | -0.9 |
| Tom Brennan | 5 | 6.5 | 5 | -1.5 |
| Matej Zagar | 4 | 7.7 | 5 | -2.7 |
| Zach Cook | 4 | 3.8 | 1 | -2.8 |
| Nick Blodorn | 5 | 6.6 | 3 | -3.6 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.