BVA vs SHE
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, July 4, 2022 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Matej Zagar3 3 3 211
- 2Tom Brennan1 1 0 24+1
- 3Brady Kurtz2 3 3 311+1
- 4Charles Wright3 2 1 1 310+1
- 5Max Fricke1 3 3 1 R8+2
- 6Jye Etheridge3 1 0 37
- 7Norick Blödorn2 2 3 07+1
- 1Jack Holder0 1 1 3 27+1
- 2Craig Cook2 0 2 26
- 3Tobiasz Musielak1 2 0 25
- 4Kyle Howarth0 0 1 23
- 5Adam Ellis0 2 2 1 0 16+2
- 6Justin Sedgmen0 0 00
- 7Connor Mountain1 3 1 05+1
Heat by heat
- Matej Zagar · BVA3
- Craig Cook · SHE2
- Tom Brennan · BVA1
- Jack Holder · SHE0
- Jye Etheridge · BVA3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2*
- Connor Mountain · SHE1
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE0
- Charles Wright · BVA3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2*
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE1
- Kyle Howarth · SHE0
- Connor Mountain · SHE3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2
- Max Fricke · BVA1*
- Adam Ellis · SHE0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Charles Wright · BVA2*
- Jack Holder · SHE1
- Craig Cook · SHE0
- Matej Zagar · BVA3
- Adam Ellis · SHE2
- Tom Brennan · BVA1
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE0
- Max Fricke · BVA3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2
- Jye Etheridge · BVA1
- Kyle Howarth · SHE0
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Craig Cook · SHE2
- Connor Mountain · SHE1*
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Adam Ellis · SHE2
- Charles Wright · BVA1
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE0
- Matej Zagar · BVA3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2*
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE0
- Max Fricke · BVA3
- Craig Cook · SHE2
- Jack Holder · SHE1*
- Jye Etheridge · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2
- Adam Ellis · SHE1*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Matej Zagar · BVA2
- Max Fricke · BVA1*
- Adam Ellis · SHE0
- Jye Etheridge · BVA3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2
- Charles Wright · BVA1
- Connor Mountain · SHE0
- Charles Wright · BVA3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Adam Ellis · SHE1*
- Max Fricke · BVAR
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 16 → 15 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 17 km/h W
- gusts up to 32 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 1.9 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 60 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 17 | 7 | +10 | −10 | |
| 5–7 | 13 | 5 | +8 | −8 | |
| 8–10 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| BVA | SHE | BVA | SHE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +6 | 89 % |
| 3 | +10 | 98 % |
| 4 | +10 | 98 % |
| 5 | +14 | 100 % |
| 6 | +16 | 99 % |
| 7 | +18 | 100 % |
| 8 | +18 | 100 % |
| 9 | +20 | 100 % |
| 10 | +24 | 100 % |
| 11 | +24 | 100 % |
| 12 | +24 | 100 % |
| 13 | +24 | 100 % |
| 14 | +26 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Wright | 5 | 6.2 | 10 | +3.8 |
| Matej Zagar | 4 | 7.7 | 11 | +3.3 |
| Brady Kurtz | 4 | 8.2 | 11 | +2.8 |
| Jye Etheridge | 4 | 4.2 | 7 | +2.8 |
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 4.6 | 7 | +2.4 |
| Connor Mountain | 4 | 4.0 | 5 | +1.0 |
| Craig Cook | 4 | 5.7 | 6 | +0.3 |
| Tom Brennan | 4 | 4.2 | 4 | -0.2 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 7.9 | 7 | -0.9 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 4 | 7.6 | 5 | -2.6 |
| Max Fricke | 5 | 10.8 | 8 | -2.8 |
| Kyle Howarth | 4 | 5.9 | 3 | -2.9 |
| Justin Sedgmen | 3 | 3.3 | 0 | -3.3 |
| Adam Ellis | 6 | 9.7 | 6 | -3.7 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.