IPW vs BVA
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, May 5, 2022 · Foxhall Stadium, Ipswich
Results
- 1Jason Doyle3 3 0 39
- 2Erik Riss1 1 1 36+1
- 3Danny King2 3 1 3 09
- 4Ben Barker1 1 0 13+2
- 5Troy Batchelor3 3 3 0 110
- 6Paul Starke3 FD R 2 27+1
- 7Anders Rowe1 0 23
- 1Max Fricke0 0 2 13+1
- 2Jye Etheridge2 2 0 15+1
- 3Matej Zagar3 2 2 2 0 211+2
- 4Charles Wright0 1 1 35+2
- 5Brady Kurtz1 2 3 2 311+1
- 6Norick Blödorn0 0 00
- 7Tom Brennan2 2 3 18
Heat by heat
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Jye Etheridge · BVA2
- Erik Riss · IPW1
- Max Fricke · BVA0
- Paul Starke · IPW3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2
- Anders Rowe · IPW1
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Matej Zagar · BVA3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Ben Barker · IPW1*
- Charles Wright · BVA0
- Troy Batchelor · IPW3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1*
- Anders Rowe · IPW0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Jye Etheridge · BVA2
- Ben Barker · IPW1
- Max Fricke · BVA0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Erik Riss · IPW1
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Troy Batchelor · IPW3
- Matej Zagar · BVA2
- Charles Wright · BVA1*
- Paul Starke · IPWFD
- Tom Brennan · BVA3
- Anders Rowe · IPW2
- Erik Riss · IPW1*
- Jye Etheridge · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2*
- Danny King · IPW1
- Ben Barker · IPW0
- Erik Riss · IPW3
- Matej Zagar · BVA2
- Charles Wright · BVA1*
- Jason Doyle · IPW0
- Troy Batchelor · IPW3
- Max Fricke · BVA2
- Jye Etheridge · BVA1*
- Paul Starke · IPWR
- Danny King · IPW3
- Anders Rowe · IPW2*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Matej Zagar · BVA0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Max Fricke · BVA1*
- Troy Batchelor · IPW0
- Charles Wright · BVA3
- Paul Starke · IPW2
- Ben Barker · IPW1*
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Matej Zagar · BVA2*
- Troy Batchelor · IPW1
- Danny King · IPW0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Fog
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 16 → 12 °C
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Wind
- 10 km/h SE
- gusts up to 17 km/h
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 2 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Humidity
- 76 %
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| IPW | BVA | IPW | BVA | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead IPW
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +8 | 95 % |
| 7 | +8 | 95 % |
| 8 | +8 | 94 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +4 | 88 % |
| 12 | +8 | 98 % |
| 13 | +8 | 98 % |
| 14 | +8 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Batchelor | 5 | 5.8 | 10 | +4.2 |
| Erik Riss | 4 | 3.9 | 6 | +2.1 |
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 9.5 | 11 | +1.5 |
| Anders Rowe | 4 | 3.6 | 5 | +1.4 |
| Paul Starke | 4 | 4.3 | 5 | +0.7 |
| Jye Etheridge | 4 | 4.3 | 5 | +0.7 |
| Tom Brennan | 4 | 6.3 | 7 | +0.7 |
| Jason Doyle | 4 | 9.4 | 9 | -0.4 |
| Charles Wright | 4 | 5.6 | 5 | -0.6 |
| Ben Barker | 4 | 3.7 | 3 | -0.7 |
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
| Danny King | 5 | 10.0 | 9 | -1.0 |
| Matej Zagar | 5 | 10.6 | 9 | -1.6 |
| Max Fricke | 4 | 9.1 | 3 | -6.1 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.