SHE vs BVA
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, May 26, 2022 · Owlerton Stadium, Sheffield
Results
- 1Jack Holder3 2 3 19
- 2Craig Cook2 1 3 2 19+3
- 3Tobiasz Musielak0 3 3 3 312
- 4Kyle Howarth3 2 1 39+1
- 5Adam Ellis3 1 2 39
- 6Stefan Nielsen2 R 1 FD3+1
- 7Connor Mountain1 0 1 13+1
- 1Max Fricke1 1 3 2 29
- 3Matej Zagar1 2 2 0 05+2
- 4Charles Wright2 3 2 1 2 010
- 5Brady Kurtz1 3 E 04+1
- 6Norick Blödorn0 2 0 02
- 7Tom Brennan0 3 0 0 0 2 16+1
Heat by heat
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Craig Cook · SHE2*
- Max Fricke · BVA1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Tom Brennan · BVA3
- Stefan Nielsen · SHE2
- Connor Mountain · SHE1*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Kyle Howarth · SHE3
- Charles Wright · BVA2
- Matej Zagar · BVA1*
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE0
- Adam Ellis · SHE3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1*
- Connor Mountain · SHE0
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2*
- Max Fricke · BVA1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Craig Cook · SHE1*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Charles Wright · BVA3
- Matej Zagar · BVA2*
- Adam Ellis · SHE1
- Stefan Nielsen · SHER
- Craig Cook · SHE3
- Charles Wright · BVA2
- Connor Mountain · SHE1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Matej Zagar · BVA2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Craig Cook · SHE2*
- Charles Wright · BVA1
- Matej Zagar · BVA0
- Max Fricke · BVA3
- Adam Ellis · SHE2
- Stefan Nielsen · SHE1*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2
- Connor Mountain · SHE1
- Matej Zagar · BVA0
- Adam Ellis · SHE3
- Max Fricke · BVA2
- Jack Holder · SHE1
- Brady Kurtz · BVA0
- Kyle Howarth · SHE3
- Charles Wright · BVA2
- Tom Brennan · BVA1*
- Stefan Nielsen · SHEFD
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Max Fricke · BVA2
- Craig Cook · SHE1
- Charles Wright · BVA0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 15 → 12 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 21 km/h W
- gusts up to 41 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 1.6 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 73 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 13 | 5 | +8 | −8 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| SHE | BVA | SHE | BVA | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead SHE
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +8 | 95 % |
| 7 | +4 | 82 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +8 | 94 % |
| 10 | +12 | 100 % |
| 11 | +12 | 100 % |
| 12 | +14 | 100 % |
| 13 | +16 | 100 % |
| 14 | +16 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Howarth | 4 | 5.0 | 9 | +4.0 |
| Craig Cook | 5 | 5.6 | 9 | +3.4 |
| Adam Ellis | 4 | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 |
| Charles Wright | 6 | 8.1 | 10 | +1.9 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 10.8 | 12 | +1.2 |
| Jack Holder | 4 | 8.5 | 9 | +0.5 |
| Connor Mountain | 4 | 4.2 | 3 | -1.2 |
| Tom Brennan | 7 | 7.5 | 6 | -1.5 |
| Brady Kurtz | 3 | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 |
| Stefan Nielsen | 4 | 4.6 | 3 | -1.6 |
| Max Fricke | 5 | 10.7 | 9 | -1.7 |
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 3.8 | 2 | -1.8 |
| Matej Zagar | 5 | 9.2 | 5 | -4.2 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.