BVA vs SHE
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, October 7, 2021 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Dan Bewley0 3 3 3 3 315
- 2Richie Worrall2 3 1 3 0 110
- 3Steve Worrall2 2 1 1 17+2
- 4Charles WrightF 0 2 1 36
- 6Tom Brennan1 0 01
- 7Jye Etheridge3 1 1 2 29+1
- 1Jack Holder3 3 3 2 213
- 2Tory Batchelor1 1 0 24+1
- 3Kyle Howarth1 2 1 04+1
- 4Joshua Pickering3 1 2 17+1
- 5Adam Ellis2 2 3 0 07
- 6Danyon Hume0 0 00
- 7Connor Mountain2 0 2 3 07
Heat by heat
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Richie Worrall · BVA2
- Tory Batchelor · SHE1
- Dan Bewley · BVA0
- Jye Etheridge · BVA3
- Connor Mountain · SHE2
- Tom Brennan · BVA1
- Danyon Hume · SHE0
- Joshua Pickering · SHE3
- Steve Worrall · BVA2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Charles Wright · BVAF
- Richie Worrall · BVA3
- Adam Ellis · SHE2
- Jye Etheridge · BVA1
- Connor Mountain · SHE0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Steve Worrall · BVA2
- Tory Batchelor · SHE1
- Charles Wright · BVA0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Adam Ellis · SHE2
- Richie Worrall · BVA1
- Danyon Hume · SHE0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2
- Joshua Pickering · SHE1*
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Richie Worrall · BVA3
- Connor Mountain · SHE2
- Jye Etheridge · BVA1
- Tory Batchelor · SHE0
- Adam Ellis · SHE3
- Charles Wright · BVA2
- Steve Worrall · BVA1*
- Danyon Hume · SHE0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Joshua Pickering · SHE2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1*
- Richie Worrall · BVA0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Tory Batchelor · SHE2*
- Steve Worrall · BVA1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Connor Mountain · SHE3
- Jye Etheridge · BVA2
- Steve Worrall · BVA1*
- Kyle Howarth · SHE0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Charles Wright · BVA1
- Adam Ellis · SHE0
- Charles Wright · BVA3
- Jye Etheridge · BVA2*
- Joshua Pickering · SHE1
- Connor Mountain · SHE0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Richie Worrall · BVA1
- Adam Ellis · SHE0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 18 → 16 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 8 km/h S
- gusts up to 22 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 1.4 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 87 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 9 | 3 | +6 | −6 | |
| BVA | SHE | BVA | SHE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | -2 | 47 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | -2 | 47 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | 0 | 60 % |
| 8 | +2 | 71 % |
| 9 | +2 | 73 % |
| 10 | +2 | 70 % |
| 11 | -2 | 36 % |
| 12 | -2 | 35 % |
| 13 | 0 | 56 % |
| 14 | +4 | 94 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Holder | 5 | 10.6 | 13 | +2.4 |
| Jye Etheridge | 5 | 6.6 | 9 | +2.4 |
| Richie Worrall | 6 | 7.7 | 10 | +2.3 |
| Dan Bewley | 6 | 12.9 | 15 | +2.1 |
| Connor Mountain | 5 | 6.0 | 7 | +1.0 |
| Joshua Pickering | 4 | 6.6 | 7 | +0.4 |
| Tory Batchelor | 4 | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 |
| Kyle Howarth | 4 | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 |
| Steve Worrall | 5 | 8.1 | 7 | -1.1 |
| Charles Wright | 5 | 7.4 | 6 | -1.4 |
| Adam Ellis | 5 | 8.8 | 7 | -1.8 |
| Tom Brennan | 3 | 3.2 | 1 | -2.2 |
| Danyon Hume | 3 | 2.5 | 0 | -2.5 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.