BVA vs SHE
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, September 6, 2021 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Dan Bewley3 3 3 2 314+1
- 2Jye Etheridge1 0 1 13+1
- 3Steve Worrall3 3 2 3 112
- 4Charles Wright1 1 1 25+2
- 5Brady Kurtz2 1 3 39
- 6Tom Brennan3 0 2 1 39
- 7Simon Lambert1 0 12
- 1Jack Holder2 2 1 2 0 07+1
- 2Troy Batchelor0 0 3 03
- 3Kyle Howarth2 2 0 26+1
- 4Joshua Pickering0 3 2 16
- 5Adam Ellis3 2 3 1 211
- 6Danyon Hume0 0 00
- 7Kyle Bickley2 1 0 03
Heat by heat
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Jye Etheridge · BVA1
- Troy Batchelor · SHE0
- Tom Brennan · BVA3
- Kyle Bickley · SHE2
- Simon Lambert · BVA1
- Danyon Hume · SHE0
- Steve Worrall · BVA3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2
- Charles Wright · BVA1
- Joshua Pickering · SHE0
- Adam Ellis · SHE3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Kyle Bickley · SHE1
- Simon Lambert · BVA0
- Steve Worrall · BVA3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Charles Wright · BVA1
- Troy Batchelor · SHE0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Adam Ellis · SHE2
- Jack Holder · SHE1*
- Jye Etheridge · BVA0
- Joshua Pickering · SHE3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2*
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Troy Batchelor · SHE3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2
- Jye Etheridge · BVA1*
- Kyle Bickley · SHE0
- Adam Ellis · SHE3
- Steve Worrall · BVA2
- Charles Wright · BVA1*
- Danyon Hume · SHE0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Joshua Pickering · SHE2
- Jye Etheridge · BVA1
- Kyle Howarth · SHE0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Tom Brennan · BVA1
- Troy Batchelor · SHE0
- Steve Worrall · BVA3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2
- Simon Lambert · BVA1
- Danyon Hume · SHE0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2*
- Adam Ellis · SHE1
- Jack Holder · SHE0
- Tom Brennan · BVA3
- Charles Wright · BVA2*
- Joshua Pickering · SHE1
- Kyle Bickley · SHE0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Adam Ellis · SHE2
- Steve Worrall · BVA1
- Jack Holder · SHE0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 23 → 17 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 5 km/h W
- gusts up to 17 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 1.7 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 80 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 13 | 5 | +8 | −8 | |
| 14–15 | 9 | 3 | +6 | −6 | |
| BVA | SHE | BVA | SHE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +6 | 90 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | +2 | 71 % |
| 9 | +2 | 73 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +6 | 92 % |
| 12 | +8 | 98 % |
| 13 | +12 | 100 % |
| 14 | +16 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Worrall | 5 | 5.7 | 12 | +6.3 |
| Dan Bewley | 5 | 9.9 | 14 | +4.1 |
| Tom Brennan | 5 | 5.2 | 9 | +3.8 |
| Adam Ellis | 5 | 7.2 | 11 | +3.8 |
| Brady Kurtz | 4 | 7.8 | 9 | +1.2 |
| Joshua Pickering | 4 | 5.7 | 6 | +0.3 |
| Kyle Howarth | 4 | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 |
| Jye Etheridge | 4 | 3.8 | 3 | -0.8 |
| Kyle Bickley | 4 | 4.7 | 3 | -1.7 |
| Troy Batchelor | 4 | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 |
| Simon Lambert | 3 | 4.1 | 2 | -2.1 |
| Charles Wright | 4 | 7.2 | 5 | -2.2 |
| Danyon Hume | 3 | 3.8 | 0 | -3.8 |
| Jack Holder | 6 | 13.4 | 7 | -6.4 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.