BVA vs KLS
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, August 23, 2021 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Dan Bewley1 3 3 3 212
- 3Steve Worrall2 2 1 3 19
- 4Charles Wright1 1 2 26+3
- 5Brady Kurtz3 3 3 1 111+1
- 6Tom Brennan0 1 0 0 01
- 7Jye Etheridge3 3 2 0 1 09+1
- 1Richard Lawson0 3 2 2 2 312+1
- 2Ben Barker2 0 2 15+2
- 3Erik Riss0 2 0 35
- 4Lewis Kerr3 1 2 3 09+1
- 5Thomas Jorgensen0 2 0 02
- 6Connor Mountain2 0 13
- 7Kasper Andersen1 1 3 16+1
Heat by heat
- Jye Etheridge · BVA3
- Ben Barker · KLS2
- Dan Bewley · BVA1
- Richard Lawson · KLS0
- Jye Etheridge · BVA3
- Connor Mountain · KLS2
- Kasper Andersen · KLS1*
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Lewis Kerr · KLS3
- Steve Worrall · BVA2
- Charles Wright · BVA1*
- Erik Riss · KLS0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Jye Etheridge · BVA2*
- Kasper Andersen · KLS1
- Thomas Jorgensen · KLS0
- Richard Lawson · KLS3
- Steve Worrall · BVA2
- Charles Wright · BVA1*
- Ben Barker · KLS0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Thomas Jorgensen · KLS2
- Tom Brennan · BVA1
- Connor Mountain · KLS0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Erik Riss · KLS2
- Lewis Kerr · KLS1*
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Kasper Andersen · KLS3
- Ben Barker · KLS2*
- Steve Worrall · BVA1
- Jye Etheridge · BVA0
- Steve Worrall · BVA3
- Charles Wright · BVA2*
- Connor Mountain · KLS1
- Thomas Jorgensen · KLS0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Lewis Kerr · KLS2
- Jye Etheridge · BVA1
- Erik Riss · KLS0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Richard Lawson · KLS2
- Ben Barker · KLS1*
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Erik Riss · KLS3
- Richard Lawson · KLS2*
- Steve Worrall · BVA1
- Jye Etheridge · BVA0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Richard Lawson · KLS2
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1
- Thomas Jorgensen · KLS0
- Lewis Kerr · KLS3
- Charles Wright · BVA2
- Kasper Andersen · KLS1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Richard Lawson · KLS3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1*
- Lewis Kerr · KLS0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 20 → 17 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 9 km/h NE
- gusts up to 20 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.8 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 66 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| BVA | KLS | BVA | KLS | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +8 | 95 % |
| 7 | +8 | 95 % |
| 8 | +4 | 83 % |
| 9 | +8 | 94 % |
| 10 | +10 | 96 % |
| 11 | +10 | 97 % |
| 12 | +6 | 92 % |
| 13 | +8 | 98 % |
| 14 | +6 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Kerr | 5 | 5.3 | 9 | +3.7 |
| Richard Lawson | 6 | 10.4 | 12 | +1.6 |
| Steve Worrall | 5 | 7.8 | 9 | +1.2 |
| Jye Etheridge | 6 | 7.9 | 9 | +1.1 |
| Ben Barker | 4 | 4.1 | 5 | +0.9 |
| Kasper Andersen | 4 | 5.6 | 6 | +0.4 |
| Connor Mountain | 3 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| Dan Bewley | 5 | 12.0 | 12 | -0.0 |
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| Erik Riss | 4 | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 |
| Charles Wright | 4 | 7.1 | 6 | -1.1 |
| Thomas Jorgensen | 4 | 5.1 | 2 | -3.1 |
| Tom Brennan | 5 | 5.2 | 1 | -4.2 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.