BVA vs IPW
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, August 2, 2021 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Dan Bewley3 3 3 3 315
- 2Richie Worrall2 2 1 27+3
- 3Steve Worrall1 3 2 39+1
- 4Charles Wright0 0 3 14+1
- 5Brady Kurtz2 3 3 2 111+2
- 6Tom Brennan0 0 2 24+1
- 7Simon Lambert1 3 0 15
- 2Andres Rowe0 1 3 0 15+1
- 3Craig Cook1 3 1 0 05+1
- 4Danny King2 2 2 1 2 3 214+1
- 5Jake Allen1 E 1 02
- 6Drew Kemp3 0 0 XO3
- 7Paul Starke2 0 1 2 1 06+2
Heat by heat
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Richie Worrall · BVA2*
- Craig Cook · IPW1
- Andres Rowe · IPW0
- Drew Kemp · IPW3
- Paul Starke · IPW2*
- Simon Lambert · BVA1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Craig Cook · IPW3
- Danny King · IPW2*
- Steve Worrall · BVA1
- Charles Wright · BVA0
- Simon Lambert · BVA3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2*
- Jake Allen · IPW1
- Paul Starke · IPW0
- Steve Worrall · BVA3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Andres Rowe · IPW1*
- Charles Wright · BVA0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Richie Worrall · BVA2*
- Paul Starke · IPW1
- Drew Kemp · IPW0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Craig Cook · IPW1*
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Andres Rowe · IPW3
- Paul Starke · IPW2*
- Richie Worrall · BVA1
- Simon Lambert · BVA0
- Charles Wright · BVA3
- Steve Worrall · BVA2*
- Jake Allen · IPW1
- Drew Kemp · IPW0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Richie Worrall · BVA2*
- Danny King · IPW1
- Craig Cook · IPW0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2*
- Paul Starke · IPW1
- Andres Rowe · IPW0
- Steve Worrall · BVA3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Simon Lambert · BVA1
- Craig Cook · IPW0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2*
- Andres Rowe · IPW1
- Jake Allen · IPW0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2
- Charles Wright · BVA1*
- Drew Kemp · IPWXO
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1
- Paul Starke · IPW0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 16 → 13 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 11 km/h W
- gusts up to 22 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.3 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 70 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 14 | 4 | +10 | −10 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| BVA | IPW | BVA | IPW | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | -4 | 34 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | +4 | 82 % |
| 7 | +4 | 82 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +8 | 95 % |
| 11 | +12 | 100 % |
| 12 | +14 | 100 % |
| 13 | +18 | 100 % |
| 14 | +18 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Bewley | 5 | 11.2 | 15 | +3.8 |
| Steve Worrall | 4 | 5.3 | 9 | +3.7 |
| Richie Worrall | 4 | 5.0 | 7 | +2.0 |
| Danny King | 7 | 12.7 | 14 | +1.3 |
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 10.9 | 11 | +0.1 |
| Tom Brennan | 4 | 4.1 | 4 | -0.1 |
| Simon Lambert | 4 | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 |
| Drew Kemp | 4 | 3.6 | 3 | -0.6 |
| Andres Rowe | 5 | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 |
| Jake Allen | 3 | 3.2 | 2 | -1.2 |
| Paul Starke | 6 | 8.1 | 6 | -2.1 |
| Charles Wright | 4 | 6.7 | 4 | -2.7 |
| Craig Cook | 5 | 8.0 | 5 | -3.0 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.