BVA vs SHE
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, May 17, 2021 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Brady Kurtz1 2 3 2 19
- 2Richie WorrallE 1 3 26+2
- 3Dan Bewley1 3 2 3 312+1
- 4Steve Worrall2 0 1 03+1
- 5Charles Wright1 0 3 15+1
- 6Tom Brennan0 1 1 13
- 7Jye Etheridge3 1 3 0 29+1
- 1Troy Batchelor0 2 0 02
- 2Kyle Howarth2 1 2 1 28+3
- 4Justin Sedgmen0 3 1 1 2 07+1
- 5Jack Holder3 2 3 3 3 3 219
- 6James Wright2 0 02+1
- 7Josh Bates3 0 2 0 05
Heat by heat
- Jye Etheridge · BVA3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1
- Troy Batchelor · SHE0
- Josh Bates · SHE3
- James Wright · SHE2*
- Jye Etheridge · BVA1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Steve Worrall · BVA2
- Dan Bewley · BVA1*
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE0
- Jye Etheridge · BVA3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Charles Wright · BVA1
- Josh Bates · SHE0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Troy Batchelor · SHE2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1*
- Steve Worrall · BVA0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Richie Worrall · BVA1*
- James Wright · SHE0
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2*
- Tom Brennan · BVA1
- Charles Wright · BVA0
- Richie Worrall · BVA3
- Josh Bates · SHE2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1*
- Jye Etheridge · BVA0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Steve Worrall · BVA1*
- James Wright · SHE0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Richie Worrall · BVA2*
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE1
- Josh Bates · SHE0
- Charles Wright · BVA3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2
- Tom Brennan · BVA1
- Troy Batchelor · SHE0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Jye Etheridge · BVA2*
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE1
- Josh Bates · SHE0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Charles Wright · BVA1*
- Troy Batchelor · SHE0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE2*
- Tom Brennan · BVA1
- Steve Worrall · BVA0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1
- Justin Sedgmen · SHE0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 12 → 9 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 12 km/h NW
- gusts up to 28 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 4.6 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 63 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| BVA | SHE | BVA | SHE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | -2 | 54 % |
| 3 | -2 | 47 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | -4 | 32 % |
| 8 | -4 | 35 % |
| 9 | -4 | 28 % |
| 10 | 0 | 56 % |
| 11 | +2 | 68 % |
| 12 | +6 | 92 % |
| 13 | +6 | 96 % |
| 14 | +2 | 77 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Bewley | 5 | 8.9 | 12 | +3.1 |
| Jye Etheridge | 5 | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 |
| Richie Worrall | 3 | 3.5 | 6 | +2.5 |
| Kyle Howarth | 5 | 6.6 | 8 | +1.4 |
| Jack Holder | 7 | 17.8 | 19 | +1.2 |
| Justin Sedgmen | 6 | 6.2 | 7 | +0.8 |
| Charles Wright | 4 | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 |
| Steve Worrall | 4 | 4.1 | 3 | -1.1 |
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 10.1 | 9 | -1.1 |
| James Wright | 3 | 3.2 | 2 | -1.2 |
| Josh Bates | 5 | 6.6 | 5 | -1.6 |
| Tom Brennan | 4 | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 |
| Troy Batchelor | 4 | 6.0 | 2 | -4.0 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.