LUB vs GRU
PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, September 5, 2025 · Best Auto Arena, Lublin
Results
- 9Dominik Kubera1 2 2 1 39+1
- 10Fredrik Lindgren3 1 3 D 07+1
- 11Jack Holder3 2 3 311
- 12Mateusz Cierniak0 1 1 35+1
- 13Bartosz Zmarzlik3 3 1 3 W10
- 14Bartosz Bańbor3 1 0 37
- 15Bartosz Jaworski0 0 11
- 1Max Fricke2 1 1 D 15+2
- 2Jaimon Lidsey1 2 0 2 27+1
- 3Jakub Miśkowiak0 0 3 14
- 4Vadim Tarasenko2 3 2 29+1
- 5Michael Jepsen Jensen2 3 2 2 211
- 6Kevin Małkiewicz1 0 01+1
- 7Jan Przanowski2 0 0 13
Heat by heat
- Jack Holder · LUB3
- Max Fricke · GRU2
- Dominik Kubera · LUB1
- Jakub Miśkowiak · GRU0
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB3
- Jan Przanowski · GRU2
- Kevin Małkiewicz · GRU1*
- Bartosz Jaworski · LUB0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU2
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU1*
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB0
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB1
- Kevin Małkiewicz · GRU0
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU3
- Jack Holder · LUB2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1*
- Jakub Miśkowiak · GRU0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU2
- Max Fricke · GRU1*
- Bartosz Jaworski · LUB0
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU3
- Dominik Kubera · LUB2
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB1*
- Jan Przanowski · GRU0
- Jakub Miśkowiak · GRU3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2*
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB1
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB0
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Dominik Kubera · LUB2*
- Max Fricke · GRU1
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU0
- Jack Holder · LUB3
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1
- Kevin Małkiewicz · GRU0
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2
- Dominik Kubera · LUB1
- Max Fricke · GRUD
- Jack Holder · LUB3
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU2
- Bartosz Jaworski · LUB1
- Jan Przanowski · GRU0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU2
- Jakub Miśkowiak · GRU1
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUBD
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU2
- Max Fricke · GRU1*
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB0
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB3
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU2
- Jan Przanowski · GRU1
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Thunderstorm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 27 → 22 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 8 km/h E
- gusts up to 17 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 5.3 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 63 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| LUB | GRU | LUB | GRU | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LUB
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +4 | 83 % |
| 6 | +4 | 82 % |
| 7 | +4 | 82 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +6 | 92 % |
| 11 | +8 | 95 % |
| 12 | +10 | 98 % |
| 13 | +10 | 100 % |
| 14 | +10 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vadim Tarasenko | 4 | 5.9 | 9 | +3.1 |
| Bartosz Bańbor | 4 | 3.9 | 7 | +3.1 |
| Dominik Kubera | 5 | 6.4 | 9 | +2.6 |
| Jack Holder | 4 | 9.0 | 11 | +2.0 |
| Michael Jepsen Jensen | 5 | 9.1 | 11 | +1.9 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 5 | 5.8 | 7 | +1.2 |
| Jakub Miśkowiak | 4 | 3.6 | 4 | +0.4 |
| Jan Przanowski | 4 | 2.9 | 3 | +0.1 |
| Mateusz Cierniak | 4 | 4.9 | 5 | +0.1 |
| Bartosz Jaworski | 3 | 1.9 | 1 | -0.9 |
| Fredrik Lindgren | 5 | 9.4 | 7 | -2.4 |
| Kevin Małkiewicz | 3 | 3.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 5 | 13.5 | 10 | -3.5 |
| Max Fricke | 5 | 10.2 | 5 | -5.2 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.