GRU vs ZIE
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, June 23, 2024 · VENTURE INDUSTRIES ARENA, Grudziądz
Results
- 9Max Fricke3 2 2 2 312+2
- 10Michael Jepsen Jensen3 3 3 1 111
- 11Jaimon Lidsey1 3 2 0 06
- 12Kacper Pludra2 1 0 03
- 13Vadim Tarasenko1 2 1 3 18+1
- 14Kacper Łobodziński3 1 04
- 15Kevin MałkiewiczW 1 23+1
- 1Jarosław Hampel2 0 2 1 3 08+1
- 2Jan Kvech3 3 06
- 3Rasmus Jensen0 0 22
- 4Przemysław Pawlicki2 2 3 1 2 212+1
- 5Piotr Pawlicki0 W 3 3 0 39
- 6Krzysztof Sadurski1 0 1 13
- 7Oskar Hurysz2 13
Heat by heat
- Max Fricke · GRU3
- Jarosław Hampel · ZIE2
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU1
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE0
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU3
- Oskar Hurysz · ZIE2
- Krzysztof Sadurski · ZIE1
- Jan Kvech · ZIE3
- Kacper Pludra · GRU2
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU1*
- Piotr Pawlicki · ZIE0
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE2
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU1
- Krzysztof Sadurski · ZIE0
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE2
- Kacper Pludra · GRU1
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE0
- Jan Kvech · ZIE3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2
- Kevin Małkiewicz · GRU1*
- Jarosław Hampel · ZIE0
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU3
- Max Fricke · GRU2*
- Oskar Hurysz · ZIE1
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Jarosław Hampel · ZIE2*
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU1
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU0
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU3
- Max Fricke · GRU2*
- Jarosław Hampel · ZIE1
- Jan Kvech · ZIE0
- Piotr Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU2
- Krzysztof Sadurski · ZIE1
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Jarosław Hampel · ZIE3
- Max Fricke · GRU2
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE1
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Piotr Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Kevin Małkiewicz · GRU2
- Krzysztof Sadurski · ZIE1
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU0
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU3
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE2
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU1
- Piotr Pawlicki · ZIE0
- Piotr Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE2*
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU1
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU0
- Max Fricke · GRU3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE2
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU1
- Jarosław Hampel · ZIE0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 21 → 20 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 15 km/h NW
- gusts up to 33 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 52 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 8–10 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| GRU | ZIE | GRU | ZIE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GRU
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +10 | 97 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +10 | 97 % |
| 10 | +8 | 95 % |
| 11 | +6 | 92 % |
| 12 | +4 | 86 % |
| 13 | +6 | 96 % |
| 14 | +2 | 77 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Jepsen Jensen | 5 | 7.3 | 11 | +3.7 |
| Max Fricke | 5 | 9.1 | 12 | +2.9 |
| Jan Kvech | 3 | 3.3 | 6 | +2.7 |
| Kacper Łobodziński | 3 | 2.9 | 4 | +1.1 |
| Oskar Hurysz | 2 | 2.0 | 3 | +1.0 |
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 6 | 11.1 | 12 | +0.9 |
| Vadim Tarasenko | 5 | 7.7 | 8 | +0.3 |
| Kacper Pludra | 4 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| Kevin Małkiewicz | 3 | 3.1 | 3 | -0.1 |
| Krzysztof Sadurski | 4 | 3.3 | 3 | -0.3 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 5 | 7.9 | 6 | -1.9 |
| Piotr Pawlicki | 6 | 11.2 | 9 | -2.2 |
| Rasmus Jensen | 3 | 5.4 | 2 | -3.4 |
| Jarosław Hampel | 6 | 13.0 | 8 | -5.0 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.