LUB vs GRU
PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, June 7, 2024 · Best Auto Arena, Lublin
Results
- 9Dominik Kubera2 3 38+1
- 10Mateusz Cierniak2 2 26+2
- 11Jack Holder3 3 28+1
- 12Fredrik Lindgren2 2 37+2
- 13Bartosz Zmarzlik3 0 36
- 14Bartosz Bańbor0 1 12+1
- 15Wiktor Przyjemski1 23
- 1Max Fricke1 1 02
- 2Michael Jepsen Jensen1 3 15
- 3Kacper Pludra0 0 00
- 4Vadim Tarasenko0 1 23
- 5Jaimon Lidsey0 1 12
- 6Kacper Łobodziński2 3 05+1
- 7Kevin Małkiewicz3 03
Heat by heat
- Jack Holder · LUB3
- Dominik Kubera · LUB2*
- Max Fricke · GRU1
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Kevin Małkiewicz · GRU3
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU2*
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB1
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2*
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU1
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU0
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU3
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB2
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB1*
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU0
- Jack Holder · LUB3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2*
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU1
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU3
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB2
- Max Fricke · GRU1
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB2*
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU1
- Kevin Małkiewicz · GRU0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB1
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB2*
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU1
- Max Fricke · GRU0
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Jack Holder · LUB2*
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU1
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU0
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU
- Dominik Kubera · LUB
- Max Fricke · GRU
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB
- Kevin Małkiewicz · GRU
- Jack Holder · LUB
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB
- Kacper Pludra · GRU
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 22 → 18 °C
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
- Wind
- 5 km/h S
- gusts up to 13 km/h
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0.5 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 35.5 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 78 %
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 8–10 | 14 | 4 | +10 | −10 | |
| 11–13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| LUB | GRU | LUB | GRU | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LUB
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +10 | 97 % |
| 8 | +12 | 98 % |
| 9 | +16 | 100 % |
| 10 | +20 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kacper Łobodziński | 3 | 2.2 | 5 | +2.8 |
| Michael Jepsen Jensen | 4 | 3.7 | 5 | +1.3 |
| Kevin Małkiewicz | 3 | 2.1 | 3 | +0.9 |
| Dominik Kubera | 4 | 7.9 | 8 | +0.1 |
| Jack Holder | 4 | 8.5 | 8 | -0.5 |
| Fredrik Lindgren | 4 | 7.7 | 7 | -0.7 |
| Mateusz Cierniak | 4 | 6.7 | 6 | -0.7 |
| Bartosz Bańbor | 3 | 2.9 | 2 | -0.9 |
| Kacper Pludra | 4 | 1.9 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Wiktor Przyjemski | 3 | 5.2 | 3 | -2.2 |
| Vadim Tarasenko | 4 | 5.9 | 3 | -2.9 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 4 | 5.3 | 2 | -3.3 |
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 4 | 10.8 | 6 | -4.8 |
| Max Fricke | 4 | 7.1 | 2 | -5.1 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.