CZE vs LUB
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, May 5, 2024 · Krono-Plast Arena, Częstochowa
Results
- 9Mikkel Michelsen2 1 2 1 28+1
- 10Maksym Drabik3 2 1 0 06
- 11Kacper Woryna1 1 2 3 07+2
- 12Mads Hansen0 2 13+1
- 13Leon Madsen1 1 3 3 3 112
- 14Szymon Ludwiczak0 1 12
- 15Kajetan Kupiec1 0 01
- 1Dominik Kubera3 3 3 2 314
- 2Jack Holder2 2 U 2 17+2
- 3Fredrik Lindgren0 3 2 2 310
- 4Mateusz Cierniak2 0 0 W2
- 5Bartosz Zmarzlik3 3 3 1 212+2
- 6Wiktor Przyjemski3 D 03
- 7Bartosz Bańbor2 0 13+2
Heat by heat
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE2
- Kacper Woryna · CZE1*
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB0
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB3
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB2*
- Kajetan Kupiec · CZE1
- Szymon Ludwiczak · CZE0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Jack Holder · LUB2*
- Leon Madsen · CZE1
- Mads Hansen · CZE0
- Maksym Drabik · CZE3
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB2
- Szymon Ludwiczak · CZE1
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUBD
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Mads Hansen · CZE2
- Kacper Woryna · CZE1*
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Jack Holder · LUB2*
- Leon Madsen · CZE1
- Kajetan Kupiec · CZE0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Maksym Drabik · CZE2
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE1*
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB0
- Leon Madsen · CZE3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2
- Szymon Ludwiczak · CZE1
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE2
- Maksym Drabik · CZE1
- Jack Holder · LUBU
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Kacper Woryna · CZE2
- Mads Hansen · CZE1*
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB0
- Leon Madsen · CZE3
- Dominik Kubera · LUB2
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE1
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUBW
- Kacper Woryna · CZE3
- Jack Holder · LUB2
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB1*
- Kajetan Kupiec · CZE0
- Leon Madsen · CZE3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB1*
- Maksym Drabik · CZE0
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE2
- Jack Holder · LUB1
- Maksym Drabik · CZE0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB2*
- Leon Madsen · CZE1
- Kacper Woryna · CZE0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 25 → 21 °C
- Measured · Czestochowa, 4 km away
- Wind
- 7 km/h SW
- gusts up to 24 km/h
- Measured · Czestochowa, 4 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0.4 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.1 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 34 %
- Measured · Czestochowa, 4 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 9 | 15 | −6 | +6 | |
| 5–7 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 3 | 9 | −6 | +6 | |
| CZE | LUB | CZE | LUB | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead CZE
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | -4 | 37 % |
| 3 | -8 | 13 % |
| 4 | -6 | 23 % |
| 5 | -6 | 22 % |
| 6 | -10 | 8 % |
| 7 | -10 | 5 % |
| 8 | -8 | 12 % |
| 9 | -8 | 12 % |
| 10 | -8 | 5 % |
| 11 | -6 | 12 % |
| 12 | -6 | 6 % |
| 13 | -6 | 4 % |
| 14 | -8 | 0 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominik Kubera | 5 | 8.0 | 14 | +6.0 |
| Kacper Woryna | 5 | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 |
| Mikkel Michelsen | 5 | 6.9 | 8 | +1.1 |
| Leon Madsen | 6 | 10.9 | 12 | +1.1 |
| Bartosz Bańbor | 3 | 2.6 | 3 | +0.4 |
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 5 | 11.8 | 12 | +0.2 |
| Mads Hansen | 3 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| Maksym Drabik | 5 | 5.9 | 6 | +0.1 |
| Szymon Ludwiczak | 3 | 2.0 | 2 | +0.0 |
| Fredrik Lindgren | 5 | 10.1 | 10 | -0.1 |
| Kajetan Kupiec | 3 | 1.9 | 1 | -0.9 |
| Wiktor Przyjemski | 3 | 5.9 | 3 | -2.9 |
| Mateusz Cierniak | 4 | 5.3 | 2 | -3.3 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 10.4 | 7 | -3.4 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.