LUB vs WRO
PGE Ekstraliga · Monday, October 7, 2024 · Best Auto Arena, Lublin
Results
- 9Dominik Kubera3 2 2 0 310+2
- 10Fredrik Lindgren3 3 3 110
- 11Mateusz Cierniak0 1 1 13+2
- 12Jack Holder2 2 2 2 19+1
- 13Bartosz Zmarzlik3 3 39
- 14Wiktor Przyjemski2 2 0 04+2
- 15Bartosz Bańbor3 0 3 17
- 16Bartosz Jaworski00
- 1Dan Bewley1 1 1 1 26+2
- 2Francis Gusts0 0 22
- 3Artem Laguta2 3 2 2 2 314+1
- 4Bartłomiej Kowalski1 0 1 3 05+1
- 5Maciej Janowski1 1 3 3 210+1
- 6Nikodem MikołajczykW 0 00
- 7Marcel Kowolik1 0 01
Heat by heat
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Artem Laguta · WRO2
- Dan Bewley · WRO1*
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB0
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB3
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB2*
- Marcel Kowolik · WRO1
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Jack Holder · LUB2*
- Maciej Janowski · WRO1
- Francis Gusts · WRO0
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB2*
- Bartłomiej Kowalski · WRO1
- Nikodem Mikołajczyk · WRO0
- Artem Laguta · WRO3
- Jack Holder · LUB2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1*
- Bartłomiej Kowalski · WRO0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Artem Laguta · WRO2
- Dan Bewley · WRO1*
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB0
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Dominik Kubera · LUB2*
- Maciej Janowski · WRO1
- Marcel Kowolik · WRO0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Artem Laguta · WRO2
- Bartłomiej Kowalski · WRO1*
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB0
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Dominik Kubera · LUB2*
- Dan Bewley · WRO1
- Francis Gusts · WRO0
- Maciej Janowski · WRO3
- Jack Holder · LUB2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1*
- Nikodem Mikołajczyk · WRO0
- Bartłomiej Kowalski · WRO3
- Jack Holder · LUB2
- Dan Bewley · WRO1
- Dominik Kubera · LUB0
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB3
- Francis Gusts · WRO2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1
- Marcel Kowolik · WRO0
- Maciej Janowski · WRO3
- Artem Laguta · WRO2*
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB1
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Dan Bewley · WRO2
- Jack Holder · LUB1
- Bartłomiej Kowalski · WRO0
- Artem Laguta · WRO3
- Maciej Janowski · WRO2*
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB1
- Bartosz Jaworski · LUB0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Clear
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 7 °C
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
- Wind
- 5 km/h SE
- gusts up to 7 km/h
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 3 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 97 %
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 18 | 6 | +12 | −12 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| LUB | WRO | LUB | WRO | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LUB
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +8 | 94 % |
| 4 | +12 | 96 % |
| 5 | +12 | 97 % |
| 6 | +12 | 99 % |
| 7 | +16 | 100 % |
| 8 | +16 | 100 % |
| 9 | +20 | 100 % |
| 10 | +20 | 100 % |
| 11 | +18 | 100 % |
| 12 | +20 | 100 % |
| 13 | +16 | 100 % |
| 14 | +18 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartosz Bańbor | 4 | 3.4 | 7 | +3.6 |
| Fredrik Lindgren | 4 | 7.1 | 10 | +2.9 |
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 3 | 6.2 | 9 | +2.8 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 7.5 | 9 | +1.5 |
| Maciej Janowski | 5 | 8.9 | 10 | +1.1 |
| Dominik Kubera | 5 | 9.3 | 10 | +0.7 |
| Artem Laguta | 6 | 13.9 | 14 | +0.1 |
| Francis Gusts | 3 | 2.0 | 2 | -0.0 |
| Bartłomiej Kowalski | 5 | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 |
| Bartosz Jaworski | 1 | 0.6 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Marcel Kowolik | 3 | 2.2 | 1 | -1.2 |
| Wiktor Przyjemski | 4 | 5.8 | 4 | -1.8 |
| Nikodem Mikołajczyk | 3 | 1.8 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Dan Bewley | 5 | 9.3 | 6 | -3.3 |
| Mateusz Cierniak | 4 | 6.6 | 3 | -3.6 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.