TOR vs LUB
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, September 8, 2024 · Motoarena im. Mariana Rosego, Toruń
Results
- 9Patryk Dudek3 3 2 2 313+1
- 10Robert Lambert3 2 3 2 313+2
- 11Paweł Przedpełski1 3 2 3 211+1
- 12Nicolai Heiselberg0 0 00
- 13Emil Sajfutdinow3 2 3 3 213+1
- 14Antoni Kawczyński1 0 01
- 15Krzysztof Lewandowski0 0 00
- 16Mateusz Affelt00
- 1Dominik Kubera2 3 1 3 09
- 2Jack Holder2 1 0 25
- 3Fredrik Lindgren0 2 2 0 15
- 4Mateusz Cierniak1 1 1 14+3
- 5Bartosz Zmarzlik1 1 3 1 17+1
- 6Wiktor Przyjemski3 2 1 06
- 7Bartosz Bańbor2 0 13+2
Heat by heat
- Patryk Dudek · TOR3
- Dominik Kubera · LUB2
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR1
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB0
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB3
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB2*
- Antoni Kawczyński · TOR1
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR3
- Jack Holder · LUB2
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB1*
- Nicolai Heiselberg · TOR0
- Robert Lambert · TOR3
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1*
- Antoni Kawczyński · TOR0
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1*
- Nicolai Heiselberg · TOR0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR2
- Jack Holder · LUB1
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR0
- Patryk Dudek · TOR3
- Robert Lambert · TOR2*
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB1
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1*
- Antoni Kawczyński · TOR0
- Robert Lambert · TOR3
- Patryk Dudek · TOR2*
- Dominik Kubera · LUB1
- Jack Holder · LUB0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB1
- Nicolai Heiselberg · TOR0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Patryk Dudek · TOR2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1
- Mateusz Affelt · TOR0
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR3
- Jack Holder · LUB2
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB1*
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR3
- Robert Lambert · TOR2*
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB1
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB0
- Patryk Dudek · TOR3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2*
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB1
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB0
- Robert Lambert · TOR3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR2*
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB1
- Dominik Kubera · LUB0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 30 → 28 °C
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Wind
- 14 km/h SE
- gusts up to 32 km/h
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 36 %
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 11 | 13 | −2 | +2 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 10 | 2 | +8 | −8 | |
| TOR | LUB | TOR | LUB | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead TOR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | -2 | 54 % |
| 3 | -2 | 47 % |
| 4 | -2 | 46 % |
| 5 | -2 | 47 % |
| 6 | -4 | 33 % |
| 7 | 0 | 60 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +2 | 70 % |
| 11 | 0 | 48 % |
| 12 | 0 | 57 % |
| 13 | +4 | 91 % |
| 14 | +8 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paweł Przedpełski | 5 | 5.6 | 11 | +5.4 |
| Patryk Dudek | 5 | 8.6 | 13 | +4.4 |
| Robert Lambert | 5 | 9.2 | 13 | +3.8 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 5 | 9.4 | 13 | +3.6 |
| Dominik Kubera | 5 | 8.1 | 9 | +0.9 |
| Bartosz Bańbor | 3 | 2.7 | 3 | +0.3 |
| Mateusz Affelt | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Wiktor Przyjemski | 4 | 6.4 | 6 | -0.4 |
| Antoni Kawczyński | 3 | 1.6 | 1 | -0.6 |
| Nicolai Heiselberg | 3 | 1.4 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Jack Holder | 4 | 6.6 | 5 | -1.6 |
| Krzysztof Lewandowski | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Mateusz Cierniak | 4 | 7.2 | 4 | -3.2 |
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 5 | 10.8 | 7 | -3.8 |
| Fredrik Lindgren | 5 | 10.1 | 5 | -5.1 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.