TOR vs GRU
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, August 4, 2024 · Motoarena im. Mariana Rosego, Toruń
Results
- 9Patryk Dudek2 1 2 1 39+1
- 10Robert Lambert3 3 3 3 315
- 11Anders Rowe1 3 1 27+1
- 12Paweł Przedpełski1 1 3 3 08
- 13Emil Sajfutdinow3 3 2 1 211+1
- 14Antoni Kawczyński1 0 01
- 15Krzysztof Lewandowski2 0 13+1
- 1Max Fricke3 2 0 0 2 29
- 2Jaimon Lidsey0 1 1 13+2
- 3Kacper Pludra00
- 4Vadim Tarasenko2 2 1 2 3 111
- 5Michael Jepsen Jensen2 2 3 2 0 09
- 6Kacper Łobodziński3 1 0 04+1
- 7Kevin MałkiewiczW 0 00
Heat by heat
- Max Fricke · GRU3
- Patryk Dudek · TOR2
- Anders Rowe · TOR1*
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU3
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR2
- Antoni Kawczyński · TOR1
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR3
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU2
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR1
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU0
- Robert Lambert · TOR3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU1*
- Antoni Kawczyński · TOR0
- Anders Rowe · TOR3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR1
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR3
- Max Fricke · GRU2
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU1*
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR0
- Robert Lambert · TOR3
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU2
- Patryk Dudek · TOR1
- Kevin Małkiewicz · GRU0
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR2
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU1
- Antoni Kawczyński · TOR0
- Robert Lambert · TOR3
- Patryk Dudek · TOR2*
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU1
- Max Fricke · GRU0
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR3
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU2
- Anders Rowe · TOR1
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU0
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2
- Patryk Dudek · TOR1
- Max Fricke · GRU0
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU3
- Anders Rowe · TOR2
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR1*
- Kevin Małkiewicz · GRU0
- Robert Lambert · TOR3
- Max Fricke · GRU2
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR1
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU0
- Patryk Dudek · TOR3
- Max Fricke · GRU2
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU1*
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR0
- Robert Lambert · TOR3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR2*
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU1
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GRU0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Showers
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 22 → 20 °C
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Wind
- 7 km/h W
- gusts up to 19 km/h
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 73 %
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | −2 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| TOR | GRU | TOR | GRU | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead TOR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +2 | 73 % |
| 5 | +4 | 83 % |
| 6 | +4 | 82 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +4 | 83 % |
| 9 | +8 | 94 % |
| 10 | +10 | 96 % |
| 11 | +12 | 100 % |
| 12 | +12 | 100 % |
| 13 | +14 | 100 % |
| 14 | +14 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Lambert | 5 | 10.4 | 15 | +4.6 |
| Anders Rowe | 4 | 4.4 | 7 | +2.6 |
| Paweł Przedpełski | 5 | 5.9 | 8 | +2.1 |
| Krzysztof Lewandowski | 3 | 2.2 | 3 | +0.8 |
| Michael Jepsen Jensen | 6 | 8.5 | 9 | +0.5 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 5 | 11.2 | 11 | -0.2 |
| Kacper Łobodziński | 4 | 4.2 | 4 | -0.2 |
| Kacper Pludra | 1 | 0.7 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Patryk Dudek | 5 | 9.9 | 9 | -0.9 |
| Vadim Tarasenko | 6 | 11.9 | 11 | -0.9 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 4 | 4.4 | 3 | -1.4 |
| Antoni Kawczyński | 3 | 2.6 | 1 | -1.6 |
| Max Fricke | 6 | 10.7 | 9 | -1.7 |
| Kevin Małkiewicz | 3 | 2.9 | 0 | -2.9 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.