LUB vs CZE
PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, July 19, 2024 · Best Auto Arena, Lublin
Results
- 9Dominik Kubera3 1 2 1 18+1
- 10Mateusz Cierniak2 2 0 04
- 11Jack Holder1 0 1 35
- 12Fredrik Lindgren1 3 3 0 07+1
- 13Bartosz Zmarzlik2 3 2 3 212+1
- 14Wiktor Przyjemski3 1 3 310
- 15Bartosz Bańbor1 1 D2
- 1Mikkel Michelsen2 2 1 3 1 110+1
- 2Maksym Drabik0 0 2 02
- 3Mads Hansen0 1 01+1
- 4Kacper Woryna3 2 1 2 210+1
- 5Leon Madsen3 3 3 2 2 316
- 6Kajetan Kupiec2 U2
- 7Kacper Halkiewicz0 00
- 8Bartosz Śmigielski0 11
Heat by heat
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE2
- Jack Holder · LUB1
- Mads Hansen · CZE0
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB3
- Kajetan Kupiec · CZE2
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB1
- Kacper Halkiewicz · CZE0
- Leon Madsen · CZE3
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB2
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB1*
- Maksym Drabik · CZE0
- Kacper Woryna · CZE3
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB2
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB1
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Kacper Woryna · CZE2
- Mads Hansen · CZE1*
- Jack Holder · LUB0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE2
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB1
- Maksym Drabik · CZE0
- Leon Madsen · CZE3
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB2
- Dominik Kubera · LUB1*
- Kacper Halkiewicz · CZE0
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB3
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB2*
- Kacper Woryna · CZE1
- Mads Hansen · CZE0
- Leon Madsen · CZE3
- Dominik Kubera · LUB2
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE1
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB0
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Leon Madsen · CZE2
- Jack Holder · LUB1
- Bartosz Śmigielski · CZE0
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE3
- Kacper Woryna · CZE2*
- Dominik Kubera · LUB1
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB0
- Jack Holder · LUB3
- Maksym Drabik · CZE2
- Bartosz Śmigielski · CZE1
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUBD
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Leon Madsen · CZE2
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE1*
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB0
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB3
- Kacper Woryna · CZE2
- Dominik Kubera · LUB1
- Maksym Drabik · CZE0
- Leon Madsen · CZE3
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB2
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE1
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Clear
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 26 → 22 °C
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
- Wind
- 8 km/h N
- gusts up to 17 km/h
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 50 %
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| LUB | CZE | LUB | CZE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LUB
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +4 | 83 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +10 | 98 % |
| 9 | +8 | 94 % |
| 10 | +10 | 96 % |
| 11 | +6 | 92 % |
| 12 | +6 | 92 % |
| 13 | +6 | 96 % |
| 14 | +8 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Madsen | 6 | 10.8 | 16 | +5.2 |
| Wiktor Przyjemski | 4 | 5.6 | 10 | +4.4 |
| Kacper Woryna | 5 | 7.3 | 10 | +2.7 |
| Mikkel Michelsen | 6 | 8.5 | 10 | +1.5 |
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 5 | 10.9 | 12 | +1.1 |
| Kajetan Kupiec | 2 | 1.6 | 2 | +0.4 |
| Bartosz Śmigielski | 2 | 0.8 | 1 | +0.2 |
| Dominik Kubera | 5 | 8.6 | 8 | -0.6 |
| Kacper Halkiewicz | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Bartosz Bańbor | 3 | 3.2 | 2 | -1.2 |
| Mateusz Cierniak | 4 | 5.7 | 4 | -1.7 |
| Jack Holder | 4 | 7.0 | 5 | -2.0 |
| Fredrik Lindgren | 5 | 9.6 | 7 | -2.6 |
| Mads Hansen | 3 | 3.7 | 1 | -2.7 |
| Maksym Drabik | 4 | 5.6 | 2 | -3.6 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.