GRU vs LUB
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, April 14, 2024 · VENTURE INDUSTRIES ARENA, Grudziądz
Results
- 9Max Fricke2 2 3 3 1 112
- 10Kacper Pludra0 00
- 11Jaimon Lidsey0 3 0 2 1 39
- 12Vadim Tarasenko0 0 1 01+1
- 13Jason Doyle2 2 3 2 W 09+1
- 14Kacper Łobodziński1 1 24+2
- 15Kevin Małkiewicz2 1 03
- 1Dominik Kubera3 3 2 1 211+1
- 2Jack Holder1 D 1 3 16+2
- 3Fredrik Lindgren1 1 U 3 27+1
- 4Mateusz Cierniak2 2 1 05+1
- 5Bartosz Zmarzlik3 3 3 2 314+1
- 6Wiktor Przyjemski3 3 06
- 7Bartosz Bańbor0 1 23+1
Heat by heat
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Max Fricke · GRU2
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB1
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU0
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB3
- Kevin Małkiewicz · GRU2
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU1*
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Jason Doyle · GRU2
- Jack Holder · LUB1
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU0
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB3
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB2*
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU1
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU3
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB2
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB1*
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Jason Doyle · GRU2
- Kevin Małkiewicz · GRU1
- Jack Holder · LUBD
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Max Fricke · GRU2
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB1
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Jason Doyle · GRU3
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU2*
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUBU
- Max Fricke · GRU3
- Dominik Kubera · LUB2
- Jack Holder · LUB1*
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU2
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU1*
- Wiktor Przyjemski · LUB0
- Max Fricke · GRU3
- Jason Doyle · GRU2*
- Dominik Kubera · LUB1
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB0
- Jack Holder · LUB3
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB2*
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU1
- Kevin Małkiewicz · GRU0
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB2*
- Max Fricke · GRU1
- Jaimon Lidsey · GRU3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2
- Jack Holder · LUB1*
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Dominik Kubera · LUB2*
- Max Fricke · GRU1
- Jason Doyle · GRU0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 17 → 14 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 20 km/h W
- gusts up to 45 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 1.1 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 24 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 8 | 16 | −8 | +8 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| GRU | LUB | GRU | LUB | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GRU
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | -2 | 54 % |
| 3 | -4 | 34 % |
| 4 | -8 | 15 % |
| 5 | -8 | 18 % |
| 6 | -8 | 18 % |
| 7 | -10 | 5 % |
| 8 | -6 | 16 % |
| 9 | -6 | 20 % |
| 10 | -6 | 15 % |
| 11 | -2 | 36 % |
| 12 | -6 | 6 % |
| 13 | -10 | 1 % |
| 14 | -10 | 0 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fricke | 6 | 7.5 | 12 | +4.5 |
| Dominik Kubera | 5 | 8.3 | 11 | +2.7 |
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 5 | 11.6 | 14 | +2.4 |
| Kacper Łobodziński | 3 | 1.6 | 4 | +2.4 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 6 | 6.9 | 9 | +2.1 |
| Kevin Małkiewicz | 3 | 2.1 | 3 | +0.9 |
| Bartosz Bańbor | 3 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| Mateusz Cierniak | 4 | 5.3 | 5 | -0.3 |
| Wiktor Przyjemski | 3 | 6.3 | 6 | -0.3 |
| Kacper Pludra | 2 | 1.9 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Jason Doyle | 6 | 11.2 | 9 | -2.2 |
| Vadim Tarasenko | 4 | 4.2 | 1 | -3.2 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 9.6 | 6 | -3.6 |
| Fredrik Lindgren | 5 | 10.7 | 7 | -3.7 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.