LUB vs TOR
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, June 11, 2023 · Best Auto Arena, Lublin
Results
- 9Jarosław Hampel2 3 3 0 311+1
- 10Antti Vuolas1 1 02
- 11Jack Holder3 3 2 3 213
- 12Fredrik Lindgren1 2 1 2 28+3
- 13Bartosz Zmarzlik3 3 3 312
- 14Mateusz Cierniak3 3 2 1 110+2
- 15Bartosz Bańbor2 0 13+1
- 1Patryk Dudek0 1 1 1 03+2
- 2Paweł Przedpełski0 2 2 2 06
- 3Robert Lambert1 1 1 0 14
- 4Wiktor Lampart2 0 02
- 5Emil Sajfutdinow2 2 3 3 2 315
- 6Oskar Rumiński0 00
- 7Mateusz Affelt1 D 0 01
Heat by heat
- Jack Holder · LUB3
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB2*
- Robert Lambert · TOR1
- Patryk Dudek · TOR0
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB3
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB2*
- Mateusz Affelt · TOR1
- Oskar Rumiński · TOR0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR2
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB1
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR0
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB3
- Wiktor Lampart · TOR2
- Antti Vuolas · LUB1
- Oskar Rumiński · TOR0
- Jack Holder · LUB3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2*
- Robert Lambert · TOR1
- Wiktor Lampart · TOR0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2
- Patryk Dudek · TOR1*
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB0
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR2
- Antti Vuolas · LUB1
- Mateusz Affelt · TORD
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB2*
- Robert Lambert · TOR1
- Wiktor Lampart · TOR0
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2
- Patryk Dudek · TOR1*
- Antti Vuolas · LUB0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR3
- Jack Holder · LUB2
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB1*
- Mateusz Affelt · TOR0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2
- Patryk Dudek · TOR1
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB0
- Jack Holder · LUB3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB1
- Mateusz Affelt · TOR0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1
- Robert Lambert · TOR0
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2*
- Robert Lambert · TOR1
- Patryk Dudek · TOR0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR3
- Jack Holder · LUB2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1*
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Clear
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 17 → 13 °C
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
- Wind
- 6 km/h E
- gusts up to 19 km/h
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.2 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 68 %
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 18 | 6 | +12 | −12 | |
| 5–7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| LUB | TOR | LUB | TOR | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LUB
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +8 | 96 % |
| 3 | +10 | 98 % |
| 4 | +12 | 96 % |
| 5 | +16 | 100 % |
| 6 | +16 | 99 % |
| 7 | +18 | 100 % |
| 8 | +22 | 100 % |
| 9 | +22 | 100 % |
| 10 | +22 | 100 % |
| 11 | +20 | 100 % |
| 12 | +22 | 100 % |
| 13 | +24 | 100 % |
| 14 | +28 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Cierniak | 5 | 6.7 | 10 | +3.3 |
| Jarosław Hampel | 5 | 7.8 | 11 | +3.2 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 10.5 | 13 | +2.5 |
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 4 | 9.7 | 12 | +2.3 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 6 | 13.2 | 15 | +1.8 |
| Bartosz Bańbor | 3 | 2.2 | 3 | +0.8 |
| Fredrik Lindgren | 5 | 7.3 | 8 | +0.7 |
| Antti Vuolas | 3 | 2.3 | 2 | -0.3 |
| Paweł Przedpełski | 5 | 6.4 | 6 | -0.4 |
| Mateusz Affelt | 4 | 2.1 | 1 | -1.1 |
| Wiktor Lampart | 3 | 3.2 | 2 | -1.2 |
| Oskar Rumiński | 2 | 2.5 | 0 | -2.5 |
| Patryk Dudek | 5 | 7.5 | 3 | -4.5 |
| Robert Lambert | 5 | 8.6 | 4 | -4.6 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.