GRU vs LUB
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, June 4, 2023 · VENTURE INDUSTRIES ARENA, Grudziądz
Results
- 9Max Fricke3 3 3 2 112+2
- 10Gleb Chugunov3 1 2 1 310+1
- 11Vadim Tarasenko1 2 1 2 28+2
- 12Frederik JakobsenT 0 2 35
- 13Nicki Pedersen2 3 3 3 213
- 14Kacper Łobodziński1 2 03+2
- 15Kacper Pludra2 1 2 05+2
- 1Jarosław Hampel2 0 1 0 03
- 2Jack Holder0 1 0 3 04
- 3Fredrik LindgrenD 1 1 1 03+1
- 4Kacper Grzelak11
- 5Bartosz Zmarzlik3 3 W 3 2 314
- 6Bartosz Bańbor0 W0
- 7Mateusz Cierniak3 2 2 0 1 19
Heat by heat
- Max Fricke · GRU3
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB2
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU1
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUBD
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB3
- Kacper Pludra · GRU2
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU1*
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU2
- Kacper Pludra · GRU1*
- Jack Holder · LUB0
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU3
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU2*
- Kacper Grzelak · LUB1
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB1
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Kacper Pludra · GRU2*
- Jack Holder · LUB1
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB0
- Max Fricke · GRU3
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB2
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU1
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB2
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB1*
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU0
- Max Fricke · GRU3
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU2*
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB1
- Jack Holder · LUB0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU2
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU1*
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB0
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU3
- Max Fricke · GRU2*
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB1
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB0
- Jack Holder · LUB3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB2
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU1
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB0
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2*
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU2
- Max Fricke · GRU1*
- Jack Holder · LUB0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 23 → 21 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 6 km/h NW
- gusts up to 17 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 26 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| GRU | LUB | GRU | LUB | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GRU
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +4 | 83 % |
| 6 | +8 | 95 % |
| 7 | +10 | 97 % |
| 8 | +10 | 98 % |
| 9 | +14 | 100 % |
| 10 | +14 | 99 % |
| 11 | +18 | 100 % |
| 12 | +16 | 100 % |
| 13 | +18 | 100 % |
| 14 | +22 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicki Pedersen | 5 | 7.6 | 13 | +5.4 |
| Gleb Chugunov | 5 | 5.7 | 10 | +4.3 |
| Max Fricke | 5 | 8.9 | 12 | +3.1 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 3 | 2.2 | 5 | +2.8 |
| Kacper Pludra | 4 | 2.4 | 5 | +2.6 |
| Vadim Tarasenko | 5 | 6.1 | 8 | +1.9 |
| Kacper Łobodziński | 3 | 2.3 | 3 | +0.7 |
| Mateusz Cierniak | 6 | 8.4 | 9 | +0.6 |
| Kacper Grzelak | 1 | 0.9 | 1 | +0.1 |
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 6 | 14.3 | 14 | -0.3 |
| Bartosz Bańbor | 2 | 2.7 | 0 | -2.7 |
| Jarosław Hampel | 5 | 8.6 | 3 | -5.6 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 10.2 | 4 | -6.2 |
| Fredrik Lindgren | 5 | 9.7 | 3 | -6.7 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.