LUB vs GRU
PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, May 26, 2023 · Best Auto Arena, Lublin
Results
- 9Jarosław Hampel3 2 3 311
- 10Kacper Grzelak1 1 13+1
- 11Jack Holder1 3 2 3 312
- 12Fredrik Lindgren1 2 1 2 D6+4
- 13Bartosz Zmarzlik2 3 3 3 314
- 14Mateusz Cierniak3 3 1 D 29+1
- 15Bartosz Bańbor0 0 00
- 1Nicki Pedersen2 1 D 14+1
- 2Vadim Tarasenko0 2 2 2 06
- 3Frederik Jakobsen0 0 11
- 4Gleb Chugunov2 1 0 03
- 5Max Fricke3 3 2 3 2 114
- 6Kacper Pludra2 0 0 13
- 7Wiktor Rafalski1 01+1
- 8Kacper Łobodziński1 23+1
Heat by heat
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB3
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU2
- Jack Holder · LUB1
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU0
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB3
- Kacper Pludra · GRU2
- Wiktor Rafalski · GRU1*
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB0
- Max Fricke · GRU3
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB2
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB1*
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU0
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB3
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU2
- Kacper Grzelak · LUB1
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Jack Holder · LUB3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2*
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU1
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU1*
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB0
- Max Fricke · GRU3
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB2
- Kacper Grzelak · LUB1*
- Wiktor Rafalski · GRU0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Max Fricke · GRU2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU0
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2
- Kacper Grzelak · LUB1
- Nicki Pedersen · GRUD
- Max Fricke · GRU3
- Jack Holder · LUB2
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB1*
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2*
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU1
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU0
- Jack Holder · LUB3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU1*
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Max Fricke · GRU2
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU1
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUBD
- Jack Holder · LUB3
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU2
- Kacper Pludra · GRU1
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUBD
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB2*
- Max Fricke · GRU1
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 18 → 16 °C
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
- Wind
- 10 km/h N
- gusts up to 20 km/h
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.8 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 68 %
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| LUB | GRU | LUB | GRU | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LUB
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +8 | 95 % |
| 7 | +8 | 95 % |
| 8 | +10 | 98 % |
| 9 | +12 | 99 % |
| 10 | +12 | 100 % |
| 11 | +16 | 100 % |
| 12 | +16 | 100 % |
| 13 | +16 | 100 % |
| 14 | +16 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarosław Hampel | 4 | 8.0 | 11 | +3.0 |
| Max Fricke | 6 | 11.2 | 14 | +2.8 |
| Mateusz Cierniak | 5 | 6.7 | 9 | +2.3 |
| Kacper Łobodziński | 2 | 0.9 | 3 | +2.1 |
| Kacper Grzelak | 3 | 1.1 | 3 | +1.9 |
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 5 | 12.3 | 14 | +1.7 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 10.6 | 12 | +1.4 |
| Vadim Tarasenko | 5 | 6.4 | 6 | -0.4 |
| Kacper Pludra | 4 | 3.7 | 3 | -0.7 |
| Wiktor Rafalski | 2 | 1.9 | 1 | -0.9 |
| Gleb Chugunov | 4 | 4.4 | 3 | -1.4 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 3 | 2.5 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Bartosz Bańbor | 3 | 2.5 | 0 | -2.5 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 4 | 7.2 | 4 | -3.2 |
| Fredrik Lindgren | 5 | 10.5 | 6 | -4.5 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.