CZE vs KRO

PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, May 5, 2023 · Krono-Plast Arena, Częstochowa

Results

CZE 56 : 34 KRO

CZE

9Leon Madsen3 3 3 2 213+1
10Kacper Woryna3 1 1 05
11Maksym DrabikW 2 3 3 210+1
12Jakub Miśkowiak3 1 2 0 39+2
13Mikkel Michelsen2 3 3 1 312+1
14Kajetan Kupiec2 1 03+1
15Franciszek Karczewski3 0 14

KRO

Heat by heat

Heat 162.13 s3:3

Heat 263.27 s5:1

Heat 362.92 s5:1

Heat 462.50 s4:2

Heat 562.80 s3:3

Heat 661.96 s3:3

Heat 762.24 s4:2

Heat 862.54 s3:3

Heat 962.47 s4:2

Heat 1062.70 s5:1

Heat 1162.93 s2:4

Heat 1262.97 s4:2

Heat 1362.72 s1:5

Heat 1463.62 s5:1

Heat 1563.04 s5:1

Conditions

Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.

Sky: Partly cloudy; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Temperature: 18 → 16 °C; Measured · Czestochowa, 4 km away
Wind: 6 km/h NE; gusts up to 20 km/h; Measured · Czestochowa, 4 km away
Rain during the meeting: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Rain in the 24 hours before: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Humidity: 34 %; Measured · Czestochowa, 4 km away

Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0

Match by phase

Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.

	Points		Balance
1–4	17	7	+10	−10
5–7	10	8	+2	−2
8–10	12	6	+6	−6
11–13	7	11	−4	+4
14–15	10	2	+8	−8
	CZE	KRO	CZE	KRO

The match heat by heat

Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.

Lead CZE

Heat	Lead	Home win chance
1	0	66 %
2	+4	86 %
3	+8	94 %
4	+10	98 %
5	+10	96 %
6	+10	97 %
7	+12	99 %
8	+12	98 %
9	+14	100 %
10	+18	100 %
11	+16	100 %
12	+18	100 %
13	+14	100 %
14	+18	100 %

Pre-meeting expectation

Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.

Rider	heats	Expected	Scored	±
Leon Madsen	5	9.7	13	+3.3
Krzysztof Kasprzak	6	6.3	9	+2.7
Jakub Miśkowiak	5	6.4	9	+2.6
Mikkel Michelsen	5	10.2	12	+1.8
Franciszek Karczewski	3	3.0	4	+1.0
Maksym Drabik	5	9.3	10	+0.7
Jason Doyle	6	12.5	13	+0.5
Mateusz Świdnicki	2	2.0	2	-0.0
Kajetan Kupiec	3	3.1	3	-0.1
Denis Zieliński	2	1.3	1	-0.3
Andzejs Lebedevs	6	9.2	8	-1.2
Szymon Bańdur	2	1.4	0	-1.4
Kacper Woryna	4	7.1	5	-2.1
Krzysztof Sadurski	2	2.3	0	-2.3
Vaclav Milik	4	6.2	1	-5.2

Track & gates

Heat times

Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.

slower 63.6261.96 faster

Starting gates

One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.

Points in the heatAverage of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Inside vs outside

Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.

inside A + B 38.3:24.3 outside C + D

Trend ▶ −0.70 towards the outside

Margin, average of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Full results at the source