KRO vs GRU
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, April 30, 2023 · Stadion Miejski w Krośnie, Krosno
Results
- 9Vaclav Milik3 3 1 3 313+1
- 10Krzysztof Kasprzak2 2 2 0 06+1
- 11Mateusz Świdnicki1 0 12
- 12Jason Doyle0 3 3 2 210+2
- 13Andzejs Lebedevs2 1 1 3 310
- 14Krzysztof Sadurski2 1 0 25+2
- 15Denis Zieliński3 0 03
- 1Gleb ChugunovD 3 0 D3
- 2Max Fricke1 2 3 3 09+1
- 3Vadim Tarasenko2 1 2 1 17+3
- 4Frederik Jakobsen0 2 3 1 28
- 5Nicki Pedersen3 14
- 6Kacper Pludra1 3 W 1 2 18+1
- 7Kacper Łobodziński0 00
- 8Wiktor Rafalski22
Heat by heat
- Vaclav Milik · KRO3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2
- Mateusz Świdnicki · KRO1
- Gleb Chugunov · GRUD
- Denis Zieliński · KRO3
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO2*
- Kacper Pludra · GRU1
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO2
- Max Fricke · GRU1
- Jason Doyle · KRO0
- Kacper Pludra · GRU3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · KRO2
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO1*
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU0
- Jason Doyle · KRO3
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU2
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU1*
- Mateusz Świdnicki · KRO0
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU3
- Max Fricke · GRU2*
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO1
- Denis Zieliński · KRO0
- Vaclav Milik · KRO3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · KRO2*
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU1
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU0
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2*
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO1
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO0
- Max Fricke · GRU3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · KRO2
- Vaclav Milik · KRO1*
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU0
- Jason Doyle · KRO3
- Wiktor Rafalski · GRU2
- Mateusz Świdnicki · KRO1
- Vaclav Milik · KRO3
- Jason Doyle · KRO2*
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU1
- Gleb Chugunov · GRUD
- Max Fricke · GRU3
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO2
- Kacper Pludra · GRU1
- Denis Zieliński · KRO0
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO3
- Kacper Pludra · GRU2
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU1*
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · KRO0
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO3
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU2
- Kacper Pludra · GRU1*
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · KRO0
- Vaclav Milik · KRO3
- Jason Doyle · KRO2*
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU1
- Max Fricke · GRU0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Clear
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 13 → 8 °C
- Measured · Krosno / Bia?obrzegi, 2 km away
- Wind
- 9 km/h NW
- gusts up to 19 km/h
- Measured · Krosno / Bia?obrzegi, 2 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 3.6 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 54 %
- Measured · Krosno / Bia?obrzegi, 2 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| KRO | GRU | KRO | GRU | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead KRO
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +6 | 89 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +4 | 83 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | +4 | 82 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | 0 | 56 % |
| 10 | +2 | 70 % |
| 11 | +6 | 92 % |
| 12 | +4 | 86 % |
| 13 | +4 | 91 % |
| 14 | +4 | 94 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaclav Milik | 5 | 7.9 | 13 | +5.1 |
| Krzysztof Sadurski | 4 | 3.7 | 5 | +1.3 |
| Wiktor Rafalski | 1 | 0.7 | 2 | +1.3 |
| Kacper Pludra | 6 | 6.9 | 8 | +1.1 |
| Max Fricke | 5 | 7.9 | 9 | +1.1 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 5 | 7.0 | 8 | +1.0 |
| Denis Zieliński | 3 | 2.3 | 3 | +0.7 |
| Andzejs Lebedevs | 5 | 9.6 | 10 | +0.4 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 2 | 4.3 | 4 | -0.3 |
| Mateusz Świdnicki | 3 | 3.1 | 2 | -1.1 |
| Vadim Tarasenko | 5 | 8.3 | 7 | -1.3 |
| Kacper Łobodziński | 2 | 1.6 | 0 | -1.6 |
| Jason Doyle | 5 | 11.9 | 10 | -1.9 |
| Krzysztof Kasprzak | 5 | 8.9 | 6 | -2.9 |
| Gleb Chugunov | 4 | 6.0 | 3 | -3.0 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.