LUB vs WRO

PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, September 17, 2023 · Best Auto Arena, Lublin

Results

LUB 51 : 39 WRO

LUB

9Jarosław Hampel3 2 2 3 010+1
10Dominik Kubera1 1 3 05+1
11Jack Holder1 2 1 3 18
12Fredrik Lindgren1 1 3 1 28+2
13Bartosz Zmarzlik2 3 2 1 210
14Mateusz Cierniak3 2 16+1
15Bartosz Bańbor2 1 14+1

WRO

1Piotr Pawlicki2 2 1 0 2 310
2Connor BaileyT 00
3Kacper Andrzejewski0 00
4Artem Laguta3 0 3 2 3 112
5Dan Bewley3 3 3 2 2 316+1
6Kevin Małkiewicz0 0 T 00
7Bartłomiej Kowalski1 0 0 0 W1

Heat by heat

Heat 167.97 s4:2

Heat 268.00 s5:1

Heat 367.67 s3:3

Heat 467.94 s3:3

Heat 567.69 s3:3

Dan Bewley · WRO3
Jack Holder · LUB2
Fredrik Lindgren · LUB1*
Artem Laguta · WRO0

Heat 668.04 s4:2

Heat 767.75 s3:3

Heat 867.62 s3:3

Heat 967.56 s5:1

Heat 1067.53 s4:2

Heat 1167.64 s4:2

Heat 1267.89 s4:2

Heat 1367.23 s1:5

Artem Laguta · WRO3
Dan Bewley · WRO2*
Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB1
Dominik Kubera · LUB0

Heat 1468.10 s3:3

Heat 1567.17 s2:4

Conditions

Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.

Sky: Partly cloudy → Clear; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Temperature: 21 → 17 °C; Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
Wind: 3 km/h SE; gusts up to 11 km/h; Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
Rain during the meeting: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Rain in the 24 hours before: 0.1 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Humidity: 82 %; Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away

Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0

Match by phase

Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.

	Points		Balance
1–4	15	9	+6	−6
5–7	10	8	+2	−2
8–10	12	6	+6	−6
11–13	9	9	0	0
14–15	5	7	−2	+2
	LUB	WRO	LUB	WRO

The match heat by heat

Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.

Lead LUB

Heat	Lead	Home win chance
1	+2	79 %
2	+6	89 %
3	+6	90 %
4	+6	90 %
5	+6	90 %
6	+8	95 %
7	+8	95 %
8	+8	94 %
9	+12	99 %
10	+14	99 %
11	+16	100 %
12	+18	100 %
13	+14	100 %
14	+14	100 %

Pre-meeting expectation

Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.

Rider	heats	Expected	Scored	±
Dan Bewley	6	9.3	16	+6.7
Artem Laguta	6	9.5	12	+2.5
Bartosz Bańbor	3	1.8	4	+2.2
Jarosław Hampel	5	8.6	10	+1.4
Mateusz Cierniak	3	4.8	6	+1.2
Piotr Pawlicki	6	9.2	10	+0.8
Kacper Andrzejewski	2	0.4	0	-0.4
Connor Bailey	1	0.6	0	-0.6
Fredrik Lindgren	5	9.3	8	-1.3
Bartosz Zmarzlik	5	11.5	10	-1.5
Kevin Małkiewicz	4	1.7	0	-1.7
Dominik Kubera	4	7.0	5	-2.0
Jack Holder	5	11.1	8	-3.1
Bartłomiej Kowalski	5	5.3	1	-4.3

Track & gates

Heat times

Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.

slower 68.1067.17 faster

Starting gates

One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.

Points in the heatAverage of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Inside vs outside

Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.

inside A + B 32.3:29.7 outside C + D

Trend ▶ −0.63 towards the outside

Margin, average of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Full results at the source