CZE vs LUB

PGE Ekstraliga · Saturday, August 26, 2023 · Krono-Plast Arena, Częstochowa

Results

CZE 36 : 54 LUB

CZE

9Kacper Woryna0 W T0
10Maksym Drabik1 2 1 0 04+1
11Leon Madsen2 3 3 3 3 216
12Jakub Miśkowiak0 1 1 13
13Mikkel Michelsen2 2 2 1 2 09
14Kacper Halkiewicz0 2 U 02
15Franciszek Karczewski1 01
16Kajetan Kupiec11

LUB

1Jarosław Hampel3 3 2 2 313+1
2Dominik Kubera1 1 3 2 310
3Fredrik Lindgren1 2 3 3 110
5Bartosz Zmarzlik3 3 2 1 211+1
6Bartosz Bańbor2 3 0 05+1
7Kacper Grzelak1 01
8Mateusz Cierniak3 0 1 04

Heat by heat

Heat 164.05 s2:4

Heat 263.56 s1:5

Heat 363.61 s2:4

Heat 463.98 s3:3

Heat 563.75 s4:2

Heat 663.13 s2:4

Heat 762.89 s2:4

Heat 864.17 s2:4

Heat 963.72 s1:5

Heat 1063.20 s4:2

Heat 1163.81 s4:2

Heat 1262.84 s4:2

Heat 1362.63 s2:4

Heat 1463.59 s1:5

Heat 1563.40 s2:4

Conditions

Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.

Sky: Showers → Thunderstorm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Temperature: 26 → 21 °C; Measured · Czestochowa, 4 km away
Wind: 4 km/h S; gusts up to 11 km/h; Measured · Czestochowa, 4 km away
Rain during the meeting: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Rain in the 24 hours before: 0.2 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Humidity: 74 %; Measured · Czestochowa, 4 km away

Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0

Match by phase

Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.

	Points		Balance
1–4	8	16	−8	+8
5–7	8	10	−2	+2
8–10	7	11	−4	+4
11–13	10	8	+2	−2
14–15	3	9	−6	+6
	CZE	LUB	CZE	LUB

The match heat by heat

Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.

Lead CZE

Heat	Lead	Home win chance
1	-2	53 %
2	-6	27 %
3	-8	13 %
4	-8	15 %
5	-6	22 %
6	-8	18 %
7	-10	5 %
8	-12	2 %
9	-16	1 %
10	-14	0 %
11	-12	0 %
12	-10	1 %
13	-12	0 %
14	-16	0 %

Pre-meeting expectation

Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.

Rider	heats	Expected	Scored	±
Jarosław Hampel	5	9.1	13	+3.9
Leon Madsen	6	12.4	16	+3.6
Bartosz Bańbor	4	2.2	5	+2.8
Mikkel Michelsen	6	8.3	9	+0.7
Kacper Grzelak	2	0.6	1	+0.4
Fredrik Lindgren	5	9.7	10	+0.3
Kajetan Kupiec	1	0.7	1	+0.3
Dominik Kubera	5	9.8	10	+0.2
Jakub Miśkowiak	4	2.9	3	+0.1
Franciszek Karczewski	2	1.3	1	-0.3
Kacper Halkiewicz	4	2.4	2	-0.4
Bartosz Zmarzlik	5	12.1	11	-1.1
Kacper Woryna	2	2.2	0	-2.2
Mateusz Cierniak	4	7.6	4	-3.6
Maksym Drabik	5	8.6	4	-4.6

Track & gates

Heat times

Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.

slower 64.1762.63 faster

Starting gates

One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.

Points in the heatAverage of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Inside vs outside

Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.

inside A + B 31.0:34.3 outside C + D

Trend ▶ −1.50 towards the outside

Margin, average of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Full results at the source