LUB vs CZE
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, July 23, 2023 · Best Auto Arena, Lublin
Results
- 9Jarosław Hampel0 1 1 24
- 10Dominik Kubera3 3 3 1 212
- 11Jack Holder3 1 1 3 210+2
- 12Fredrik Lindgren1 3 2 1 310+1
- 13Bartosz Zmarzlik3 2 2 3 010+1
- 14Mateusz Cierniak3 2 38+1
- 15Kacper Grzelak0 00
- 16Bartosz Bańbor00
- 1Mikkel Michelsen2 3 0 3 311
- 2Jakub Miśkowiak0 1 2 1 04+1
- 3Kacper Woryna1 0 1 2 15+1
- 4Maksym Drabik1 2 0 03
- 5Leon Madsen2 2 3 0 18
- 6Franciszek Karczewski1 0 01+1
- 7Kacper Halkiewicz2 0 24
Heat by heat
- Jack Holder · LUB3
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE2
- Kacper Woryna · CZE1*
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB0
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB3
- Kacper Halkiewicz · CZE2
- Franciszek Karczewski · CZE1*
- Kacper Grzelak · LUB0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Leon Madsen · CZE2
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB1
- Jakub Miśkowiak · CZE0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB2*
- Maksym Drabik · CZE1
- Franciszek Karczewski · CZE0
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Maksym Drabik · CZE2
- Jack Holder · LUB1
- Kacper Woryna · CZE0
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE3
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB2
- Jakub Miśkowiak · CZE1
- Kacper Grzelak · LUB0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Leon Madsen · CZE2
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB1
- Kacper Halkiewicz · CZE0
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB3
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB2*
- Kacper Woryna · CZE1
- Maksym Drabik · CZE0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Jakub Miśkowiak · CZE2
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB1
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE0
- Leon Madsen · CZE3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2
- Jack Holder · LUB1*
- Franciszek Karczewski · CZE0
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE3
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB2
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB1*
- Maksym Drabik · CZE0
- Jack Holder · LUB3
- Kacper Halkiewicz · CZE2
- Jakub Miśkowiak · CZE1*
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Kacper Woryna · CZE2
- Dominik Kubera · LUB1
- Leon Madsen · CZE0
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Jack Holder · LUB2*
- Kacper Woryna · CZE1
- Jakub Miśkowiak · CZE0
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE3
- Dominik Kubera · LUB2
- Leon Madsen · CZE1
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 24 → 20 °C
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
- Wind
- 5 km/h S
- gusts up to 17 km/h
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 54 %
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| LUB | CZE | LUB | CZE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LUB
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +8 | 95 % |
| 8 | +12 | 98 % |
| 9 | +14 | 100 % |
| 10 | +14 | 99 % |
| 11 | +14 | 100 % |
| 12 | +14 | 100 % |
| 13 | +16 | 100 % |
| 14 | +20 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikkel Michelsen | 5 | 7.1 | 11 | +3.9 |
| Mateusz Cierniak | 3 | 5.0 | 8 | +3.0 |
| Dominik Kubera | 5 | 9.4 | 12 | +2.6 |
| Kacper Halkiewicz | 3 | 2.2 | 4 | +1.8 |
| Fredrik Lindgren | 5 | 9.4 | 10 | +0.6 |
| Leon Madsen | 5 | 8.1 | 8 | -0.1 |
| Jakub Miśkowiak | 5 | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 |
| Kacper Woryna | 5 | 5.6 | 5 | -0.6 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 10.6 | 10 | -0.6 |
| Bartosz Bańbor | 1 | 0.8 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Franciszek Karczewski | 3 | 1.9 | 1 | -0.9 |
| Kacper Grzelak | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Jarosław Hampel | 4 | 6.3 | 4 | -2.3 |
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 5 | 12.4 | 10 | -2.4 |
| Maksym Drabik | 4 | 5.7 | 3 | -2.7 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.