KRO vs LUB
PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, July 7, 2023 · Stadion Miejski w Krośnie, Krosno
Results
- 9Vaclav Milik0 0 2 D 1 25+1
- 10Mateusz Świdnicki00
- 11Andzejs Lebedevs2 1 2 2 2 W9
- 12Lars Skupien00
- 13Jason Doyle1 1 1 2 2 29
- 14Krzysztof Sadurski1 1 1 03+1
- 15Denis Zieliński0 0 11+1
- 16Piotr Świercz0 0 11+1
- 1Jarosław Hampel1 3 1 05
- 2Dominik Kubera3 2 3 3 314+1
- 3Fredrik Lindgren3 2 3 311+1
- 4Jack Holder2 3 2 310+2
- 5Bartosz Zmarzlik2 3 38+1
- 6Mateusz Cierniak2 3 1 1 18+1
- 7Kacper Grzelak3 0 03
- 8Bartosz Bańbor0 33
Heat by heat
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO2
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB1
- Vaclav Milik · KRO0
- Kacper Grzelak · LUB3
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB2*
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO1
- Denis Zieliński · KRO0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB2*
- Jason Doyle · KRO1
- Lars Skupien · KRO0
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB3
- Jack Holder · LUB2*
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO1
- Mateusz Świdnicki · KRO0
- Jack Holder · LUB3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2*
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO1
- Vaclav Milik · KRO0
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB3
- Dominik Kubera · LUB2*
- Jason Doyle · KRO1
- Denis Zieliński · KRO0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Vaclav Milik · KRO2
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO1*
- Kacper Grzelak · LUB0
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Jack Holder · LUB2*
- Jason Doyle · KRO1
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO2
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB1
- Vaclav Milik · KROD
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1
- Piotr Świercz · KRO0
- Jack Holder · LUB3
- Jason Doyle · KRO2
- Vaclav Milik · KRO1*
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO2
- Denis Zieliński · KRO1*
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB0
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Jason Doyle · KRO2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1
- Piotr Świercz · KRO0
- Bartosz Bańbor · LUB3
- Vaclav Milik · KRO2
- Piotr Świercz · KRO1*
- Kacper Grzelak · LUB0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Jason Doyle · KRO2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KROW
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 22 → 20 °C
- Measured · Krosno / Bia?obrzegi, 2 km away
- Wind
- 10 km/h NW
- gusts up to 15 km/h
- Measured · Krosno / Bia?obrzegi, 2 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 52 %
- Measured · Krosno / Bia?obrzegi, 2 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 5 | 19 | −14 | +14 | |
| 5–7 | 5 | 13 | −8 | +8 | |
| 8–10 | 5 | 13 | −8 | +8 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| KRO | LUB | KRO | LUB | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead KRO
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | -6 | 27 % |
| 3 | -10 | 7 % |
| 4 | -14 | – |
| 5 | -18 | – |
| 6 | -22 | 6 % |
| 7 | -22 | 4 % |
| 8 | -26 | 1 % |
| 9 | -28 | 1 % |
| 10 | -30 | 2 % |
| 11 | -30 | 1 % |
| 12 | -30 | 0 % |
| 13 | -32 | 0 % |
| 14 | -32 | 0 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominik Kubera | 5 | 9.8 | 14 | +4.2 |
| Fredrik Lindgren | 4 | 7.5 | 11 | +3.5 |
| Jack Holder | 4 | 8.7 | 10 | +1.3 |
| Bartosz Bańbor | 2 | 2.1 | 3 | +0.9 |
| Kacper Grzelak | 3 | 2.4 | 3 | +0.6 |
| Krzysztof Sadurski | 4 | 2.6 | 3 | +0.4 |
| Andzejs Lebedevs | 6 | 9.2 | 9 | -0.2 |
| Lars Skupien | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 3 | 8.2 | 8 | -0.2 |
| Piotr Świercz | 3 | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Denis Zieliński | 3 | 1.7 | 1 | -0.7 |
| Mateusz Cierniak | 5 | 8.8 | 8 | -0.8 |
| Mateusz Świdnicki | 1 | 0.9 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Jarosław Hampel | 4 | 6.3 | 5 | -1.3 |
| Vaclav Milik | 6 | 7.9 | 5 | -2.9 |
| Jason Doyle | 6 | 12.0 | 9 | -3.0 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.