LUB vs GOR
PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, June 30, 2023 · Best Auto Arena, Lublin
Results
- 9Jarosław Hampel1 1 3 3 08
- 10Dominik Kubera1 3 2 0 17+1
- 11Jack Holder0 1 2 25+1
- 12Fredrik Lindgren2 2 1 2 310+3
- 13Bartosz Zmarzlik3 3 3 3 315
- 14Mateusz Cierniak3 3 06
- 15Kacper Grzelak1 0 01
- 1Szymon Woźniak2 1 W3+2
- 2Mathias Pollestad0 2 1 03
- 3Martin Vaculik3 3 2 3 1 214+1
- 4Oskar Fajfer2 0 1 1 26+1
- 5Anders Thomsen1 2 3 0 2 19+1
- 6Oskar Paluch2 D 0 13
- 7Mateusz Bartkowiak0 00
Heat by heat
- Martin Vaculik · GOR3
- Szymon Woźniak · GOR2*
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB1
- Jack Holder · LUB0
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB3
- Oskar Paluch · GOR2
- Kacper Grzelak · LUB1
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GOR0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2*
- Anders Thomsen · GOR1
- Mathias Pollestad · GOR0
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB3
- Oskar Fajfer · GOR2
- Dominik Kubera · LUB1
- Oskar Paluch · GORD
- Martin Vaculik · GOR3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2
- Jack Holder · LUB1*
- Oskar Fajfer · GOR0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Mathias Pollestad · GOR2
- Szymon Woźniak · GOR1*
- Kacper Grzelak · LUB0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Anders Thomsen · GOR2
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB1
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GOR0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Martin Vaculik · GOR2
- Oskar Fajfer · GOR1*
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB0
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB3
- Dominik Kubera · LUB2*
- Mathias Pollestad · GOR1
- Anders Thomsen · GOR3
- Jack Holder · LUB2
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB1*
- Oskar Paluch · GOR0
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2*
- Oskar Fajfer · GOR1
- Anders Thomsen · GOR0
- Martin Vaculik · GOR3
- Jack Holder · LUB2
- Oskar Paluch · GOR1
- Kacper Grzelak · LUB0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Anders Thomsen · GOR2
- Martin Vaculik · GOR1*
- Dominik Kubera · LUB0
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Oskar Fajfer · GOR2
- Dominik Kubera · LUB1
- Mathias Pollestad · GOR0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Martin Vaculik · GOR2
- Anders Thomsen · GOR1*
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 22 → 19 °C
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
- Wind
- 3 km/h NW
- gusts up to 13 km/h
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.3 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 70 %
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| LUB | GOR | LUB | GOR | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LUB
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -4 | 45 % |
| 2 | -2 | 54 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +4 | 83 % |
| 6 | +4 | 82 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +10 | 97 % |
| 10 | +10 | 96 % |
| 11 | +14 | 100 % |
| 12 | +12 | 100 % |
| 13 | +12 | 100 % |
| 14 | +14 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Vaculik | 6 | 9.9 | 14 | +4.1 |
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 5 | 12.9 | 15 | +2.1 |
| Fredrik Lindgren | 5 | 8.6 | 10 | +1.4 |
| Mathias Pollestad | 4 | 1.8 | 3 | +1.2 |
| Jarosław Hampel | 5 | 7.1 | 8 | +0.9 |
| Mateusz Cierniak | 3 | 5.4 | 6 | +0.6 |
| Oskar Fajfer | 5 | 5.7 | 6 | +0.3 |
| Oskar Paluch | 4 | 3.0 | 3 | +0.0 |
| Kacper Grzelak | 3 | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Anders Thomsen | 6 | 9.8 | 9 | -0.8 |
| Mateusz Bartkowiak | 2 | 1.2 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Szymon Woźniak | 3 | 4.6 | 3 | -1.6 |
| Dominik Kubera | 5 | 10.1 | 7 | -3.1 |
| Jack Holder | 4 | 8.3 | 5 | -3.3 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.