GRU vs KRO
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, July 2, 2023 · VENTURE INDUSTRIES ARENA, Grudziądz
Results
- 9Max Fricke1 3 U 04+1
- 10Gleb Chugunov2 1 3 1 18+3
- 11Vadim Tarasenko2 2 1 3 210+2
- 12Frederik Jakobsen1 3 2 3 110
- 13Nicki Pedersen2 2 3 2 D9
- 14Kacper Łobodziński2 3 05+1
- 15Kacper Pludra3 1 15+1
- 1Jason Doyle3 3 2 U 1 312+1
- 2Piotr ŚwierczW 0 22
- 3Mateusz Świdnicki0 00
- 4Vaclav Milik1 1 1 2 0 38+1
- 5Andzejs Lebedevs3 0 2 3 3 213+1
- 6Krzysztof Sadurski0 0 00
- 7Denis Zieliński1 0 2 03
Heat by heat
- Jason Doyle · KRO3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2
- Max Fricke · GRU1*
- Mateusz Świdnicki · KRO0
- Kacper Pludra · GRU3
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU2*
- Denis Zieliński · KRO1
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO0
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO3
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU2
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU1
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU3
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU2*
- Vaclav Milik · KRO1
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO0
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2*
- Vaclav Milik · KRO1
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO0
- Jason Doyle · KRO3
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU2
- Kacper Pludra · GRU1*
- Piotr Świercz · KRO0
- Max Fricke · GRU3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO2
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU1
- Denis Zieliński · KRO0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Jason Doyle · KRO2
- Vaclav Milik · KRO1*
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU0
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU3
- Piotr Świercz · KRO2
- Max Fricke · GRUU
- Jason Doyle · KROU
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO3
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU2
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU1*
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO0
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU3
- Vaclav Milik · KRO2
- Jason Doyle · KRO1*
- Max Fricke · GRU0
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU3
- Denis Zieliński · KRO2
- Kacper Pludra · GRU1
- Vaclav Milik · KRO0
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO3
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU2
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU1*
- Mateusz Świdnicki · KRO0
- Vaclav Milik · KRO3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU1*
- Denis Zieliński · KRO0
- Jason Doyle · KRO3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO2*
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU1
- Nicki Pedersen · GRUD
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 23 → 22 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 18 km/h W
- gusts up to 43 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 41 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 16 | 8 | +8 | −8 | |
| 5–7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 8–10 | 9 | 8 | +1 | −1 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| GRU | KRO | GRU | KRO | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GRU
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +8 | 93 % |
| 5 | +12 | 97 % |
| 6 | +12 | 99 % |
| 7 | +14 | 100 % |
| 8 | +14 | 100 % |
| 9 | +15 | 100 % |
| 10 | +15 | 100 % |
| 11 | +15 | 100 % |
| 12 | +17 | 100 % |
| 13 | +17 | 100 % |
| 14 | +17 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederik Jakobsen | 5 | 4.4 | 10 | +5.6 |
| Kacper Łobodziński | 3 | 2.5 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Andzejs Lebedevs | 6 | 11.1 | 13 | +1.9 |
| Piotr Świercz | 3 | 1.1 | 2 | +0.9 |
| Denis Zieliński | 4 | 2.2 | 3 | +0.8 |
| Kacper Pludra | 3 | 4.2 | 5 | +0.8 |
| Vadim Tarasenko | 5 | 9.5 | 10 | +0.5 |
| Gleb Chugunov | 5 | 7.9 | 8 | +0.1 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 5 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| Mateusz Świdnicki | 2 | 1.1 | 0 | -1.1 |
| Jason Doyle | 6 | 13.7 | 12 | -1.7 |
| Krzysztof Sadurski | 3 | 2.9 | 0 | -2.9 |
| Vaclav Milik | 6 | 10.9 | 8 | -2.9 |
| Max Fricke | 4 | 8.8 | 4 | -4.8 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.