GRU vs TOR
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, June 18, 2023 · VENTURE INDUSTRIES ARENA, Grudziądz
Results
- 9Max Fricke3 1 3 2 211+1
- 10Gleb Chugunov1 2 2 1 17+1
- 11Vadim Tarasenko1 2 1 3 07+1
- 12Frederik Jakobsen0 D 22
- 13Nicki Pedersen1 3 3 W 310
- 14Kacper Łobodziński3 3 17
- 15Kacper Pludra2 2 0 26+3
- 1Patryk Dudek0 1 01
- 2Paweł Przedpełski3 0 1 1 27
- 3Emil Sajfutdinow2 3 2 3 3 316
- 4Wiktor Lampart2 1 1 04
- 5Robert Lambert2 3 0 3 2 111+2
- 6Krzysztof Lewandowski1 0 0 01
- 7Mateusz Affelt0 00
Heat by heat
- Max Fricke · GRU3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR2
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU1
- Patryk Dudek · TOR0
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU3
- Kacper Pludra · GRU2*
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR1
- Mateusz Affelt · TOR0
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR3
- Robert Lambert · TOR2*
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU1
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU0
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU3
- Wiktor Lampart · TOR2
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU1
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR3
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU2
- Wiktor Lampart · TOR1
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRUD
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Kacper Pludra · GRU2*
- Patryk Dudek · TOR1
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR0
- Robert Lambert · TOR3
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU2
- Max Fricke · GRU1*
- Mateusz Affelt · TOR0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR2
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU1
- Robert Lambert · TOR0
- Max Fricke · GRU3
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU2*
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR1
- Patryk Dudek · TOR0
- Robert Lambert · TOR3
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU2
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU1*
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR3
- Max Fricke · GRU2
- Wiktor Lampart · TOR1
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU3
- Kacper Pludra · GRU2*
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR1
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR3
- Robert Lambert · TOR2*
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU1
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU1
- Wiktor Lampart · TOR0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · TOR3
- Max Fricke · GRU2
- Robert Lambert · TOR1
- Vadim Tarasenko · GRU0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 23 → 19 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 9 km/h E
- gusts up to 13 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 61 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| GRU | TOR | GRU | TOR | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GRU
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +6 | 89 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +2 | 69 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +8 | 94 % |
| 9 | +12 | 99 % |
| 10 | +12 | 100 % |
| 11 | +10 | 97 % |
| 12 | +14 | 100 % |
| 13 | +10 | 100 % |
| 14 | +12 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kacper Łobodziński | 3 | 2.1 | 7 | +4.9 |
| Kacper Pludra | 4 | 4.1 | 6 | +1.9 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 6 | 14.5 | 16 | +1.5 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 5 | 8.6 | 10 | +1.4 |
| Max Fricke | 5 | 10.4 | 11 | +0.6 |
| Gleb Chugunov | 5 | 6.4 | 7 | +0.6 |
| Vadim Tarasenko | 5 | 7.0 | 7 | -0.0 |
| Robert Lambert | 6 | 11.5 | 11 | -0.5 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 3 | 2.8 | 2 | -0.8 |
| Wiktor Lampart | 4 | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 |
| Paweł Przedpełski | 5 | 8.1 | 7 | -1.1 |
| Mateusz Affelt | 2 | 1.4 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Krzysztof Lewandowski | 4 | 3.8 | 1 | -2.8 |
| Patryk Dudek | 3 | 4.3 | 1 | -3.3 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.