LUB vs WRO
PGE Ekstraliga · Thursday, April 27, 2023 · Best Auto Arena, Lublin
Results
- 9Jarosław Hampel0 1 1 02
- 10Dominik Kubera3 3 3 0 110
- 11Jack Holder1 0 2 2 05+2
- 12Fredrik Lindgren2 2 3 1 311
- 13Bartosz Zmarzlik0 2 1 3 17
- 14Kacper Grzelak1 2 03+1
- 15Mateusz Cierniak3 0 36
- 1Tai Woffinden2 1 2 2 310+2
- 2Dan Bewley1 3 0 15
- 3Artem Laguta3 1 3 1 210+2
- 4Piotr Pawlicki1 3 2 3 09+1
- 5Maciej Janowski3 2 1 2 210
- 6Bartłomiej Kowalski2 0 02
- 7Kacper Andrzejewski0 0 W0
Heat by heat
- Artem Laguta · WRO3
- Tai Woffinden · WRO2*
- Jack Holder · LUB1
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB0
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB3
- Bartłomiej Kowalski · WRO2
- Kacper Grzelak · LUB1
- Kacper Andrzejewski · WRO0
- Maciej Janowski · WRO3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2
- Dan Bewley · WRO1
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Kacper Grzelak · LUB2*
- Piotr Pawlicki · WRO1
- Bartłomiej Kowalski · WRO0
- Piotr Pawlicki · WRO3
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB2
- Artem Laguta · WRO1
- Jack Holder · LUB0
- Dan Bewley · WRO3
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB2
- Tai Woffinden · WRO1
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Maciej Janowski · WRO2
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB1
- Kacper Andrzejewski · WRO0
- Artem Laguta · WRO3
- Piotr Pawlicki · WRO2*
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB1
- Kacper Grzelak · LUB0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Tai Woffinden · WRO2
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB1
- Dan Bewley · WRO0
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Jack Holder · LUB2*
- Maciej Janowski · WRO1
- Bartłomiej Kowalski · WRO0
- Piotr Pawlicki · WRO3
- Tai Woffinden · WRO2*
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB1
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB0
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB3
- Jack Holder · LUB2*
- Dan Bewley · WRO1
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB3
- Maciej Janowski · WRO2
- Artem Laguta · WRO1*
- Dominik Kubera · LUB0
- Tai Woffinden · WRO3
- Artem Laguta · WRO2*
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LUB1
- Jack Holder · LUB0
- Fredrik Lindgren · LUB3
- Maciej Janowski · WRO2
- Dominik Kubera · LUB1
- Piotr Pawlicki · WRO0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 7 → 5 °C
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
- Wind
- 5 km/h W
- gusts up to 17 km/h
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 74 %
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| LUB | WRO | LUB | WRO | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LUB
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -4 | 45 % |
| 2 | -2 | 54 % |
| 3 | -4 | 34 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | -2 | 47 % |
| 6 | -4 | 33 % |
| 7 | -2 | 46 % |
| 8 | -6 | 16 % |
| 9 | -4 | 28 % |
| 10 | 0 | 56 % |
| 11 | -4 | 18 % |
| 12 | 0 | 57 % |
| 13 | 0 | 56 % |
| 14 | -4 | 8 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrik Lindgren | 5 | 6.8 | 11 | +4.2 |
| Tai Woffinden | 5 | 7.1 | 10 | +2.9 |
| Maciej Janowski | 5 | 7.2 | 10 | +2.8 |
| Kacper Grzelak | 3 | 0.8 | 3 | +2.2 |
| Mateusz Cierniak | 3 | 4.0 | 6 | +2.0 |
| Piotr Pawlicki | 5 | 7.0 | 9 | +2.0 |
| Dominik Kubera | 5 | 9.8 | 10 | +0.2 |
| Artem Laguta | 5 | 10.4 | 10 | -0.4 |
| Dan Bewley | 4 | 6.1 | 5 | -1.1 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 6.6 | 5 | -1.6 |
| Bartłomiej Kowalski | 3 | 3.7 | 2 | -1.7 |
| Kacper Andrzejewski | 3 | 2.2 | 0 | -2.2 |
| Jarosław Hampel | 4 | 6.6 | 2 | -4.6 |
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 5 | 12.0 | 7 | -5.0 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.