GRU vs CZE
PGE Ekstraliga · Saturday, April 8, 2023 · VENTURE INDUSTRIES ARENA, Grudziądz
Results
- 9Frederik Jakobsen0 3 1 1 16+2
- 10Max Fricke2 D 2 2 28+1
- 11Gleb Chugunov2 1 2 3 08+1
- 12Mateusz Szczepaniak2 0 02+1
- 13Nicki Pedersen3 3 3 3 3 318
- 14Wiktor Rafalski0 00
- 15Kacper Pludra1 0 23+1
- 16Kacper Łobodziński00
- 1Leon Madsen3 2 3 3 213
- 2Jakub Miśkowiak1 1 0 D 02+1
- 3Mikkel Michelsen1 2 1 1 38+2
- 4Maksym Drabik1 3 2 2 19+2
- 6Franciszek Karczewski3 3 1 1 W8
- 7Kajetan Kupiec2 0 2 W 15+1
Heat by heat
- Leon Madsen · CZE3
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU2
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE1
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU0
- Franciszek Karczewski · CZE3
- Kajetan Kupiec · CZE2*
- Kacper Pludra · GRU1
- Wiktor Rafalski · GRU0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · GRU2*
- Jakub Miśkowiak · CZE1
- Kajetan Kupiec · CZE0
- Franciszek Karczewski · CZE3
- Max Fricke · GRU2
- Maksym Drabik · CZE1
- Wiktor Rafalski · GRU0
- Maksym Drabik · CZE3
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE2*
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU1
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · GRU0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Leon Madsen · CZE2
- Jakub Miśkowiak · CZE1*
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU3
- Kajetan Kupiec · CZE2
- Franciszek Karczewski · CZE1
- Max Fricke · GRUD
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Maksym Drabik · CZE2
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE1*
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU0
- Leon Madsen · CZE3
- Max Fricke · GRU2
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU1*
- Jakub Miśkowiak · CZE0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU2*
- Franciszek Karczewski · CZE1
- Leon Madsen · CZE3
- Maksym Drabik · CZE2*
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU1
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · GRU0
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU3
- Kacper Pludra · GRU2*
- Kajetan Kupiec · CZE1
- Jakub Miśkowiak · CZED
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Max Fricke · GRU2*
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE1
- Mikkel Michelsen · CZE3
- Max Fricke · GRU2
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU1*
- Jakub Miśkowiak · CZE0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Leon Madsen · CZE2
- Maksym Drabik · CZE1*
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 9 → 4 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 4 km/h NW
- gusts up to 9 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 85 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 10 | 14 | −4 | +4 | |
| 5–7 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| GRU | CZE | GRU | CZE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GRU
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | -6 | 27 % |
| 3 | -2 | 47 % |
| 4 | -4 | 38 % |
| 5 | -8 | 18 % |
| 6 | -8 | 18 % |
| 7 | -8 | 13 % |
| 8 | -8 | 12 % |
| 9 | -8 | 12 % |
| 10 | -4 | 22 % |
| 11 | -8 | 8 % |
| 12 | -4 | 20 % |
| 13 | 0 | 56 % |
| 14 | 0 | 56 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicki Pedersen | 6 | 12.2 | 18 | +5.8 |
| Franciszek Karczewski | 5 | 4.3 | 8 | +3.7 |
| Leon Madsen | 5 | 11.2 | 13 | +1.8 |
| Maksym Drabik | 5 | 7.5 | 9 | +1.5 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 5 | 5.1 | 6 | +0.9 |
| Gleb Chugunov | 5 | 7.3 | 8 | +0.7 |
| Kacper Pludra | 3 | 2.7 | 3 | +0.3 |
| Kajetan Kupiec | 5 | 4.9 | 5 | +0.1 |
| Kacper Łobodziński | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Max Fricke | 5 | 9.4 | 8 | -1.4 |
| Mateusz Szczepaniak | 3 | 3.5 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Wiktor Rafalski | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Mikkel Michelsen | 5 | 10.4 | 8 | -2.4 |
| Jakub Miśkowiak | 5 | 9.2 | 2 | -7.2 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.