LUB vs OST
PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, June 17, 2022 · Best Auto Arena, Lublin
Results
- 9Jarosław Hampel1 3 2 2 0 311+1
- 11Maksym Drabik3 2 1 2 2 D10+3
- 13Mateusz Tudzież3 03
- 14Wiktor Lampart1 0 2 1 04+2
- 15Mateusz Cierniak2 1 0 3 17
- 16Dominik Kubera2 3 3 2 3 316+1
- 1Tomasz Gapiński0 3 03
- 2Oliver Berntzon1 2 1 04+1
- 3Grzegorz Walasek2 1 3 2 19
- 5Chris Holder0 3 3 3 1 212+1
- 6Jakub Krawczyk0 2 02
- 7Sebastian Szostak3 0 1 26
- 8Tim Sörensen1 W 1 1 W3+1
Heat by heat
- Maksym Drabik · LUB3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB1
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB2
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB1*
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Mateusz Tudzież · LUB3
- Dominik Kubera · LUB2*
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Chris Holder · OST0
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB3
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST2
- Tim Sörensen · OST1*
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Maksym Drabik · LUB2*
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2*
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1
- Mateusz Tudzież · LUB0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB2
- Maksym Drabik · LUB1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB2
- Tim Sörensen · OST1
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB2*
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Maksym Drabik · LUB2
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB1*
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Dominik Kubera · LUB2
- Tim Sörensen · OST1
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB0
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB3
- Maksym Drabik · LUB2*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Oliver Berntzon · OST0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Chris Holder · OST1*
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1
- Maksym Drabik · LUBD
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 20 → 18 °C
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
- Wind
- 11 km/h NW
- gusts up to 30 km/h
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 5 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 57 %
- Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| LUB | OST | LUB | OST | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LUB
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +6 | 90 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +10 | 96 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +4 | 83 % |
| 9 | +8 | 94 % |
| 10 | +8 | 95 % |
| 11 | +6 | 92 % |
| 12 | +10 | 98 % |
| 13 | +10 | 100 % |
| 14 | +12 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Szostak | 4 | 2.5 | 6 | +3.5 |
| Dominik Kubera | 6 | 12.7 | 16 | +3.3 |
| Mateusz Tudzież | 2 | 0.8 | 3 | +2.2 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 5 | 7.1 | 9 | +1.9 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 3 | 2.2 | 2 | -0.2 |
| Mateusz Cierniak | 5 | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 |
| Maksym Drabik | 6 | 10.5 | 10 | -0.5 |
| Chris Holder | 6 | 12.6 | 12 | -0.6 |
| Tomasz Gapiński | 3 | 3.7 | 3 | -0.7 |
| Jarosław Hampel | 6 | 11.7 | 11 | -0.7 |
| Wiktor Lampart | 5 | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 |
| Tim Sörensen | 5 | 5.6 | 3 | -2.6 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 4 | 7.3 | 4 | -3.3 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.