OST vs LUB

PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, May 20, 2022 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski

Results

OST 35 : 55 LUB

OST

9Oliver Berntzon0 3 0 3 0 28
10Tomasz Gapiński2 2 0 2 2 08
12Matias Nielsen1 0 1 2 15+1
13Chris Holder3 0 3 1 2 0 211
14Jakub Krawczyk3 0 0 03
15Sebastian Szostak0 00

LUB

1Mikkel Michelsen2 1 3 3 3 315+1
3Jarosław Hampel1 3 3 3 1 112+1
4Maksym Drabik3 1 2 2 1 312+1
6Wiktor Lampart2 1 03
7Mateusz Cierniak1 1 1 14+2
8Dominik Kubera2 2 2 3 09+1

Heat by heat

Heat 166.47 s3:3

Heat 267.41 s3:3

Heat 366.58 s1:5

Heat 466.45 s2:4

Heat 565.89 s2:4

Heat 665.25 s3:3

Heat 766.20 s3:3

Heat 865.98 s1:5

Heat 964.79 s2:4

Heat 1065.56 s4:2

Heat 1165.06 s2:4

Heat 1265.50 s2:4

Heat 1364.84 s2:4

Heat 1465.42 s3:3

Heat 1564.76 s2:4

Conditions

Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.

Sky: Partly cloudy → Cloudy; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Temperature: 25 → 23 °C; Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Wind: 11 km/h W; gusts up to 33 km/h; Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Rain during the meeting: 0 mm; Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
Rain in the 24 hours before: 0 mm; Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
Humidity: 45 %; Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away

Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0

Match by phase

Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.

	Points		Balance
1–4	9	15	−6	+6
5–7	8	10	−2	+2
8–10	7	11	−4	+4
11–13	6	12	−6	+6
14–15	5	7	−2	+2
	OST	LUB	OST	LUB

The match heat by heat

Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.

Lead OST

Heat	Lead	Home win chance
1	0	66 %
2	0	64 %
3	-4	34 %
4	-6	23 %
5	-8	18 %
6	-8	18 %
7	-8	13 %
8	-12	2 %
9	-14	3 %
10	-12	0 %
11	-14	2 %
12	-16	0 %
13	-18	0 %
14	-18	0 %

Pre-meeting expectation

Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.

Rider	heats	Expected	Scored	±
Jarosław Hampel	6	9.1	12	+2.9
Mikkel Michelsen	6	12.9	15	+2.1
Jakub Krawczyk	4	2.0	3	+1.0
Matias Nielsen	5	4.5	5	+0.5
Tomasz Gapiński	6	7.9	8	+0.1
Maksym Drabik	6	11.9	12	+0.1
Oliver Berntzon	6	8.4	8	-0.4
Mateusz Cierniak	4	4.8	4	-0.8
Chris Holder	7	12.0	11	-1.0
Dominik Kubera	5	10.3	9	-1.3
Wiktor Lampart	3	4.4	3	-1.4
Sebastian Szostak	2	1.9	0	-1.9

Track & gates

Heat times

Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.

slower 67.4164.76 faster

Starting gates

One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.

Points in the heatAverage of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Inside vs outside

Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.

inside A + B 34.7:26.7 outside C + D

Trend ◀ +1.43 towards the inside

Margin, average of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Full results at the source