LUB vs GOR

PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, September 25, 2022 · Best Auto Arena, Lublin

Results

LUB 53 : 37 GOR

LUB

9Jarosław Hampel1 2 3 1 3 212+2
11Maksym Drabik2 3 0 2 2 110+2
13Mikkel Michelsen1 3 0 1 W 27+1
14Mateusz CierniakW 1 23
15Wiktor Lampart3 2 16+2
16Dominik Kubera3 2 2 3 2 315+1

GOR

1Szymon Woźniak0 1 1 0 0 W2
2Patrick Hansen0 1 0 12
4Bartosz Zmarzlik2 3 3 3 2 3 319
5Martin Vaculik3 2 1 0 3 1 010
6Oskar Paluch2 0 0 13
7Mateusz Bartkowiak1 01

Heat by heat

Heat 168.87 s3:3

Heat 268.69 s3:3

Heat 367.55 s4:2

Heat 468.37 s4:2

Heat 568.55 s2:4

Heat 668.42 s5:1

Heat 768.49 s5:1

Heat 869.17 s2:4

Heat 967.94 s3:3

Heat 1068.45 s5:1

Dominik Kubera · LUB3
Maksym Drabik · LUB2*
Oskar Paluch · GOR1
Martin Vaculik · GOR0

Heat 1168.62 s4:2

Heat 1268.72 s3:3

Heat 1368.32 s2:4

Heat 1468.75 s5:1

Heat 1568.37 s3:3

Conditions

Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.

Sky: Cloudy; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Temperature: 13 → 11 °C; Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
Wind: 3 km/h S; gusts up to 9 km/h; Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
Rain during the meeting: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Rain in the 24 hours before: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Humidity: 87 %; Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away

Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0

Match by phase

Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.

	Points		Balance
1–4	14	10	+4	−4
5–7	12	6	+6	−6
8–10	10	8	+2	−2
11–13	9	9	0	0
14–15	8	4	+4	−4
	LUB	GOR	LUB	GOR

The match heat by heat

Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.

Lead LUB

Heat	Lead	Home win chance
1	0	66 %
2	0	64 %
3	+2	77 %
4	+4	83 %
5	+2	69 %
6	+6	88 %
7	+10	97 %
8	+8	94 %
9	+8	94 %
10	+12	100 %
11	+14	100 %
12	+14	100 %
13	+12	100 %
14	+16	100 %

Pre-meeting expectation

Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.

Rider	heats	Expected	Scored	±
Dominik Kubera	6	10.6	15	+4.4
Maksym Drabik	6	6.3	10	+3.7
Jarosław Hampel	6	9.0	12	+3.0
Wiktor Lampart	3	3.8	6	+2.2
Bartosz Zmarzlik	7	17.5	19	+1.5
Oskar Paluch	4	2.4	3	+0.6
Mateusz Bartkowiak	2	1.2	1	-0.2
Patrick Hansen	4	2.5	2	-0.5
Mateusz Cierniak	3	3.7	3	-0.7
Mikkel Michelsen	6	10.1	7	-3.1
Martin Vaculik	7	14.7	10	-4.7
Szymon Woźniak	6	8.3	2	-6.3

Track & gates

Heat times

Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.

slower 69.1767.55 faster

Starting gates

One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.

Points in the heatAverage of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Inside vs outside

Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.

inside A + B 25.7:36.3 outside C + D

Trend ▶ −1.40 towards the outside

Margin, average of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Full results at the source