LUB vs TOR

PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, September 4, 2022 · Best Auto Arena, Lublin

Results

LUB 54 : 36 TOR

LUB

9Jarosław Hampel3 1 1 2 2 312+2
11Maksym Drabik0 1 0 01
13Mikkel Michelsen3 2 2 3 111+2
14Mateusz Cierniak3 3 3 2 314
15Wiktor Lampart2 0 3 16+1
16Dominik Kubera2 3 3 D 2 010+1

TOR

1Patryk Dudek1 1 3 0 1 17+2
2Jack Holder0 1 1 13+1
3Paweł Przedpełski2 2 0 U 3 2 09+1
5Robert Lambert2 3 2 1 3 0 213
6Krzysztof Lewandowski0 0 11
7Mateusz Affelt1 01
8Denis Zieliński22

Heat by heat

Heat 166.94 s3:3

Heat 266.66 s5:1

Heat 366.49 s4:2

Heat 466.92 s5:1

Heat 566.06 s1:5

Heat 666.46 s2:4

Heat 766.07 s4:2

Heat 866.64 s5:1

Heat 966.59 s5:1

Heat 1067.20 s2:4

Heat 1166.80 s5:1

Heat 1267.64 s3:3

Wiktor Lampart · LUB3
Denis Zieliński · TOR2
Jack Holder · TOR1*
Maksym Drabik · LUB0

Heat 1366.68 s3:3

Heat 1466.26 s3:3

Heat 1566.79 s4:2

Conditions

Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.

Sky: Partly cloudy → Cloudy; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Temperature: 19 → 17 °C; Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
Wind: 5 km/h E; gusts up to 15 km/h; Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
Rain during the meeting: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Rain in the 24 hours before: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Humidity: 57 %; Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away

Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0

Match by phase

Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.

	Points		Balance
1–4	17	7	+10	−10
5–7	7	11	−4	+4
8–10	12	6	+6	−6
11–13	11	7	+4	−4
14–15	7	5	+2	−2
	LUB	TOR	LUB	TOR

The match heat by heat

Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.

Lead LUB

Heat	Lead	Home win chance
1	0	66 %
2	+4	86 %
3	+6	90 %
4	+10	98 %
5	+6	90 %
6	+4	82 %
7	+6	90 %
8	+10	98 %
9	+14	100 %
10	+12	100 %
11	+16	100 %
12	+16	100 %
13	+16	100 %
14	+16	100 %

Pre-meeting expectation

Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.

Rider	heats	Expected	Scored	±
Mateusz Cierniak	5	4.9	14	+9.1
Wiktor Lampart	4	4.3	6	+1.7
Denis Zieliński	1	0.3	2	+1.7
Mikkel Michelsen	5	9.4	11	+1.6
Jarosław Hampel	6	10.7	12	+1.3
Paweł Przedpełski	7	8.2	9	+0.8
Mateusz Affelt	2	1.4	1	-0.4
Krzysztof Lewandowski	3	2.1	1	-1.1
Robert Lambert	7	14.2	13	-1.2
Dominik Kubera	6	11.4	10	-1.4
Jack Holder	4	6.7	3	-3.7
Patryk Dudek	6	11.2	7	-4.2
Maksym Drabik	4	5.3	1	-4.3

Track & gates

Heat times

Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.

slower 67.6466.06 faster

Starting gates

One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.

Points in the heatAverage of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Inside vs outside

Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.

inside A + B 25.7:33.0 outside C + D

Trend ▶ −1.43 towards the outside

Margin, average of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Full results at the source