GRU vs OST
PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, August 5, 2022 · VENTURE INDUSTRIES ARENA, Grudziądz
Results
- 9Przemysław Pawlicki2 3 3 1 2 314
- 10Krzysztof Kasprzak2 0 3 1 2 19
- 11Frederik Jakobsen1 3 2 3 2 112+2
- 14Kacper Łobodziński1 0 01
- 15Kacper Pludra3 0 1 04+1
- 16Norbert Krakowiak2 2 2 1 07+2
- 1Oliver Berntzon3 3 2 3 1 W12
- 2Grzegorz Walasek0 1 01
- 3Tomasz Gapiński0 11
- 4Matias Nielsen1 0 1 02
- 5Chris Holder1 2 2 3 2 212+1
- 6Jakub KrawczykW 3 3 0 3 312
- 7Jakub Poczta2 1 03+1
- 8Sebastian SzostakT0
Heat by heat
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU1*
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST0
- Kacper Pludra · GRU3
- Jakub Poczta · OST2
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU1
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU3
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU2*
- Chris Holder · OST1
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU2
- Matias Nielsen · OST1
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU2*
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST1
- Matias Nielsen · OST0
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Jakub Poczta · OST1*
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU2
- Matias Nielsen · OST1
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU0
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU1
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST0
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU1*
- Matias Nielsen · OST0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU2
- Kacper Pludra · GRU1*
- Jakub Poczta · OST0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Chris Holder · OST2*
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU1
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU1
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Showers
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 30 → 24 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 10 km/h NE
- gusts up to 20 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 53 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| GRU | OST | GRU | OST | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GRU
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +6 | 90 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +4 | 83 % |
| 9 | +6 | 89 % |
| 10 | +8 | 95 % |
| 11 | +8 | 95 % |
| 12 | +8 | 98 % |
| 13 | +6 | 96 % |
| 14 | +2 | 77 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Krawczyk | 6 | 5.7 | 12 | +6.3 |
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 6 | 7.9 | 14 | +6.1 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 6 | 9.8 | 12 | +2.2 |
| Jakub Poczta | 3 | 2.6 | 3 | +0.4 |
| Chris Holder | 6 | 11.7 | 12 | +0.3 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 6 | 12.2 | 12 | -0.2 |
| Kacper Pludra | 4 | 4.8 | 4 | -0.8 |
| Norbert Krakowiak | 5 | 7.8 | 7 | -0.8 |
| Krzysztof Kasprzak | 6 | 10.6 | 9 | -1.6 |
| Tomasz Gapiński | 2 | 2.7 | 1 | -1.7 |
| Kacper Łobodziński | 3 | 2.9 | 1 | -1.9 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 3 | 4.3 | 1 | -3.3 |
| Matias Nielsen | 4 | 6.9 | 2 | -4.9 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.