WRO vs GRU

PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, July 22, 2022 · Stadion Olimpijski we Wrocławiu, Wrocław

Results

WRO 66 : 24 GRU

WRO

9Gleb Chugunov2 2 3 3 3 215+3
11Tai Woffinden3 3 3 3 3 318
13Maciej Janowski2 2 3 2 2 213+4
14Michał Curzytek2 0 02+1
15Bartłomiej Kowalski3 0 D3
16Dan Bewley3 2 2 2 3 315+3

GRU

1Krzysztof Kasprzak1 0 1 D2
3Frederik Jakobsen0 1 1 1 0 03+1
4Przemysław Pawlicki1 0 0 2 1 15+1
6Kacper Pludra1 2 1 W 0 04
7Wiktor Rafalski0 11
8Norbert Krakowiak1 3 1 2 1 19

Heat by heat

Heat 163.39 s5:1

Heat 263.84 s5:1

Heat 362.58 s5:1

Heat 462.80 s3:3

Heat 562.73 s5:1

Heat 663.15 s2:4

Heat 762.59 s5:1

Heat 862.83 s3:3

Heat 963.08 s5:1

Heat 1062.54 s5:1

Tai Woffinden · WRO3
Dan Bewley · WRO2*
Frederik Jakobsen · GRU1

Heat 1163.13 s5:1

Heat 1263.21 s3:3

Heat 1363.61 s5:1

Heat 1462.53 s5:1

Heat 1562.99 s5:1

Conditions

Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.

Sky: Partly cloudy; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Temperature: 29 → 24 °C; Measured · Wroclaw Copernicus Airport, 15 km away
Wind: 6 km/h N; gusts up to 13 km/h; Measured · Wroclaw Copernicus Airport, 15 km away
Rain during the meeting: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Rain in the 24 hours before: 0.3 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Humidity: 48 %; Measured · Wroclaw Copernicus Airport, 15 km away

Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0

Match by phase

Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.

	Points		Balance
1–4	18	6	+12	−12
5–7	12	6	+6	−6
8–10	13	5	+8	−8
11–13	13	5	+8	−8
14–15	10	2	+8	−8
	WRO	GRU	WRO	GRU

The match heat by heat

Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.

Lead WRO

Heat	Lead	Home win chance
1	+4	85 %
2	+8	96 %
3	+12	98 %
4	+12	96 %
5	+16	100 %
6	+14	99 %
7	+18	100 %
8	+18	100 %
9	+22	100 %
10	+26	100 %
11	+30	100 %
12	+30	100 %
13	+34	100 %
14	+38	100 %

Pre-meeting expectation

Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.

Rider	heats	Expected	Scored	±
Tai Woffinden	6	11.9	18	+6.1
Gleb Chugunov	6	10.2	15	+4.8
Dan Bewley	6	13.0	15	+2.0
Norbert Krakowiak	6	7.8	9	+1.2
Michał Curzytek	3	1.6	2	+0.4
Kacper Pludra	6	4.5	4	-0.5
Bartłomiej Kowalski	3	3.5	3	-0.5
Maciej Janowski	6	13.7	13	-0.7
Wiktor Rafalski	2	2.1	1	-1.1
Krzysztof Kasprzak	4	5.2	2	-3.2
Przemysław Pawlicki	6	8.4	5	-3.4
Frederik Jakobsen	6	8.2	3	-5.2

Track & gates

Heat times

Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.

slower 63.8462.53 faster

Starting gates

One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.

Points in the heatAverage of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Inside vs outside

Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.

inside A + B 33.0:28.3 outside C + D

Trend ▶ −0.73 towards the outside

Margin, average of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Full results at the source